Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:46:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x43bb…26db world 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,391 (-13%) realized −$5,178 · open −$213
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate33%22W / 45L
Whale WR35%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$604per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$220est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$711now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$737
7 days−$3,573
14 days+$584
30 days+$198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$2,757
sports 27% −$1,330
other 8% −$1,199
finance 1% −$314
crypto 1% −$360
politics 0% −$140
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -47.5% -52.5% 22% 22% -62.8%
≤30d 27 +36.1% +23.1% 48% 48% -8.0%
≤90d 67 -5.8% -14.8% 33% 30% -22.5%
all 67 -5.8% -14.8% 33% 30% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 30% -22.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 30% -29.9%
15% -30.4% 30% -36.7%
20% -37.2% 25% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 35% (≥$722) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -31% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$530 vs −$390 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$711
Realized−$5,178
Unrealized−$213
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses22 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)35%
Est. fees paid−$220
Open positions4
Markets (closed)67 / 71
History coverage82d
Avg bet$604
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $360 $315 −$45 (-12%)
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Yes 68¢ 70¢ $177 $183 +$6 (+4%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $200 $140 −$60 (-30%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $187 $73 −$115 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $139 −$139 -100%
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals Jun 22 $857 −$857 -100%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $257 +$259 +101%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,620 −$292 -18%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $366 −$366 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $341 +$307 +90%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $814 −$814 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $939 −$939 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $731 −$731 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $408 +$1,020 +250%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $291 +$209 +72%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $780 +$720 +92%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $152 −$52 -34%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $238 +$1,625 +684%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $322 +$1,246 +387%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $158 −$158 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? Jun 14 $315 −$315 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,249 −$1,249 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $216 +$184 +85%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $254 +$121 +48%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $177 +$73 +41%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $173 +$166 +96%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $133 +$117 +88%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $450 +$550 +122%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 25 $244 −$191 -78%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 25 $380 −$194 -51%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner May 17 $400 −$400 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $84 +$116 +137%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $722 +$255 +35%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner May 15 $378 −$378 -100%
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 15 $302 −$302 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? May 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner May 15 $189 +$223 +118%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 29 $8,805 −$3,254 -37%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Apr 28 $97 −$8 -8%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Apr 27 $85 −$21 -25%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $274 −$102 -37%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? Apr 27 $261 −$128 -49%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Apr 27 $72 −$72 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 3 Winner Apr 27 $52 −$52 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Apr 27 $484 −$484 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Apr 26 $233 +$223 +95%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Apr 26 $2,623 −$621 -24%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 26 $471 −$418 -89%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 25 $774 +$521 +67%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $1,326 −$157 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 68¢ $178 38m
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $139 1h
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $112 2h
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $123 2h
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $37 2h
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $34 2h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $516 2h
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $294 3h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $7 3h
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $78 3h
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $178 3h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $232 3h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $16 3h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $2 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $62 30h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $91 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $25 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $55 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $279 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $102 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $360 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $711.00 · official $705.19 (match) · 783 history records