Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:05:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

43
0x43b8…4809
crypto · 135 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$33 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$33 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses98 / 37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)135 / 135
History coverage32d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 135 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$9
14 days−$26
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 -3.2% -12.4% 75% 24% -12.2%
≤30d 127 -4.4% -13.5% 72% 25% -13.2%
≤90d 135 -4.1% -13.2% 73% 25% -13.1%
all 135 -4.1% -13.2% 73% 25% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 25% -13.1%
10% -21.5% 10% -21.4%
15% -29.1% 4% -29.0%
20% -36.1% 1% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 429 history records