Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:04:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x43b8…39d0 world 131 markets active 2h ago coverage 337d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate38%50W / 80L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$4
politics 21% −$1
other 18% +$1
sports 12% −$1
crypto 6% +$3
economics 5% +$1
tech 1% $0
culture 1% +$1
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.6% -9.0% 80% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 26 +0.4% -9.1% 58% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 86 -0.6% -10.1% 37% 1% -9.4%
all 130 -0.1% -9.6% 38% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 2% -9.4%
10% -18.3% 2% -18.0%
15% -26.2% 1% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

337d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses50 / 80
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)130 / 131
History coverage337d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 80¢ 80¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $43 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 19 $42 $0 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $42 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $38 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $51 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $70 −$1 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $45 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $84 +$2 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $74 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $48 −$2 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $41 +$1 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $13 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $110 −$3 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $40 +$2 +4%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $133 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $153 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $81 −$2 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $3 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $82 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $109 −$2 -2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $46 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 26 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $44 $0 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 21 $12 $0 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $4 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $7 +$5 +71%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $39 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 18 $3 −$1 -24%
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? May 18 $4 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 16 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $55 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 27 $44 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $108 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $77 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $50 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $69 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $111 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $35 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $46 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $61 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 21 $36 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $41 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $22 5h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $23 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $8 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $34 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $6 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $37 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $42 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $42 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $42 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $26 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $16 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $12 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $42 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $42 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $20 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $6 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $4 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $9 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $16 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $45 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $41 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.68 · official $40.55 (match) · 473 history records