Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:08:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x43b7…1c12 sports 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$449 (-26%) realized −$440 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%9W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$291now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$111
other 41% −$77
world 6% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-47.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -41.9% -47.4% 36% 32% -27.5%
≤30d 25 -41.9% -47.4% 36% 32% -27.5%
≤90d 25 -41.9% -47.4% 36% 32% -27.5%
all 25 -41.9% -47.4% 36% 32% -27.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.4% 32% -27.5%
10% -52.5% 28% -34.4%
15% -57.1% 24% -40.8%
20% -61.3% 20% -46.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$36 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$291
Realized−$440
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses9 / 16
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)25 / 35
History coverage3d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 65¢ 62¢ $200 $189 −$11 (-5%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Under 75¢ 76¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 +$65 +64%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $152 +$83 +54%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $101 +$55 +54%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $104 −$102 -99%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 $0 -3%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $141 −$105 -74%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $71 −$27 -38%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $71 −$70 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$2 +7%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 +$6 +31%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $46 +$26 +58%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 52¢ $101 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $101 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $166 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $234 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $156 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 64¢ $152 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $101 3h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $101 3h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $101 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 7h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $104 24h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $10 25h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 26h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 57¢ $30 26h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 26¢ $34 26h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 16¢ $14 26h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $30 27h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $41 29h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $41 29h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 29h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $80 30h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $20 30h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 30h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 32h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $20 32h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 50¢ $20 32h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $20 32h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 28¢ $15 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $291.23 · official $391.23 · 56 history records