Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:04:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
43 0x43b7…6c32 other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 247d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$172 (+24%) realized +$172 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate68%27W / 13L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$9
14 days−$12
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$14
politics 41% +$165
sports 3% −$3
crypto 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -7.2% -16.0% 64% 64% -13.8%
≤30d 29 -3.4% -12.6% 66% 66% -12.7%
≤90d 30 -2.3% -11.6% 67% 67% -12.2%
all 40 +1.1% -8.5% 68% 65% +15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 65% +15.7%
10% -17.3% 48% +4.6%
15% -25.3% 32% -5.5%
20% -32.6% 20% -14.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$8 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.74 per $1 lost it wins $2.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized+$172
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses27 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage247d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $38 +$19 +50%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $12 +$1 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $13 −$12 -91%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $2 +$1 +60%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$4 +73%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $2 −$2 -87%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $8 +$1 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$4 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +62%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4 +$1 +31%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$4 -57%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 +$1 +16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $9 +$2 +20%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +34%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$5 -59%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +36%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Manuel Saavedra win the 2026 Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral elec Mar 27 $4 +$1 +30%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-07? Feb 10 $2 $0 +11%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-28? Jan 30 $2 +$1 +27%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-15? Jan 15 $1 $0 +20%
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential elect Dec 29 $27 −$13 -47%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Dec 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? Dec 04 $34 −$22 -67%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-11-29? Nov 29 $6 +$8 +138%
Will Japan win on 2025-11-18? Nov 18 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Korea Republic win on 2025-11-14? Nov 14 $26 +$9 +35%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 20 $223 +$203 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $57 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $57 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $38 18h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 19h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 23h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $3 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $12 29h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 40h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 43h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $13 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 7¢ $0 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $8 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $5 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $4 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 4d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.98 · official $56.98 (match) · 97 history records