Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:58:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x43b6…2bc9 crypto 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2 (-2%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%14W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$14
other 18% −$2
sports 7% +$5
world 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +3.4% -6.4% 32% 32% -25.0%
≤30d 36 +2.2% -7.5% 36% 36% -16.1%
≤90d 42 -9.3% -17.9% 33% 33% -20.3%
all 42 -9.3% -17.9% 33% 33% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 33% -20.3%
10% -25.8% 31% -27.9%
15% -33.0% 21% -34.9%
20% -39.5% 19% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses14 / 28
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 47
History coverage36d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +82%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +266%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 AND Saudi Jun 15 $3 −$1 -39%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +94%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 AND Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AN Jun 15 $1 +$2 +159%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $1 +$9 +873%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$2 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$5 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$5 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 31 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 31 $9 +$4 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 20 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 20 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 11 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria BUY 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? AN BUY 23¢ $1 11h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 11h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 12h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 AND Saudi BUY 34¢ $1 19h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 AND Saudi SELL 34¢ $2 19h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 AND Saudi BUY 34¢ $2 19h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 20h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 20h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 20h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 21¢ $1 20h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 23h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 35h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 36h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 36h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 38h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 AND Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AN BUY 38¢ $1 38h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 90¢ $1 43h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 43h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 43h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 43h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 43h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Sweden win on 2026- BUY 5¢ $1 43h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 18¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.70 (match) · 88 history records