Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:13:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x43b4…ec9c politics 134 markets active 6h ago coverage 253d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 252d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$9,634 (+3%) realized +$8,034 · open +$1,600
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate62%66W / 40L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$2,477per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$89,215now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,872
7 days+$2,872
14 days+$2,872
30 days+$3,270
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$6,403
other 33% +$285
politics 12% +$716
finance 1% +$73
weather 1% −$263
tech 1% +$185
crypto 0% +$61
sports 0% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +3.4% -6.5% 100% 0% -6.1%
≤30d 4 +2.9% -6.9% 75% 25% -5.7%
≤90d 40 +2.7% -7.1% 90% 12% -6.3%
all 106 -13.1% -21.3% 62% 24% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.3% 24% -6.2%
10% ← realistic here -28.9% 8% -15.2%
15% -35.7% 7% -23.4%
20% -42.0% 3% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$710) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
14.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$127 vs −$64 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.36 per $1 lost it wins $3.36
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

253d coverage
Net worth$89,215
Realized+$8,034
Unrealized+$1,600
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses66 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Open positions28
Markets (closed)106 / 134
History coverage253d ⚠
Avg bet$2,477
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $46,326 $46,321 −$5 (-0%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 87¢ 93¢ $10,393 $11,158 +$765 (+7%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 100¢ $6,106 $6,358 +$251 (+4%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $4,642 $4,734 +$93 (+2%)
Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $4,320 $4,471 +$150 (+3%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $2,824 $2,913 +$89 (+3%)
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $2,760 $2,776 +$15 (+1%)
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 100¢ $2,621 $2,727 +$106 (+4%)
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $2,117 $2,118 +$1 (+0%)
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $1,425 $1,433 +$8 (+1%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $1,361 $1,406 +$45 (+3%)
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026? No 88¢ 89¢ $956 $966 +$11 (+1%)
Modi out by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 94¢ $519 $549 +$30 (+6%)
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 100¢ $358 $383 +$25 (+7%)
Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? No 88¢ 90¢ $202 $205 +$3 (+2%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 88¢ $180 $177 −$3 (-2%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? No 98¢ 100¢ $135 $138 +$3 (+2%)
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $105 $106 +$0 (+0%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 87¢ 90¢ $87 $90 +$4 (+4%)
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $59 $61 +$2 (+3%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 85¢ 85¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? No 86¢ 84¢ $31 $30 −$1 (-2%)
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2026? No 83¢ 88¢ $21 $23 +$1 (+6%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? No 76¢ 100¢ $12 $16 +$4 (+31%)
Will Xi Jinping purge Wang Huning in 2026? No 80¢ 96¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 29 $25,658 +$542 +2%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Jun 29 $49,848 +$2,330 +5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 02 $43 −$6 -14%
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? May 30 $2,168 +$404 +19%
Will Trump say "Mao" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $710 +$59 +8%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $195 +$5 +3%
Will Trump say "North Korea" or "Kim Jong Un" during events with Xi Ji May 15 $915 +$30 +3%
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $737 +$40 +5%
Will Trump say "Cookie" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $463 +$11 +2%
Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $36 +$2 +5%
Will Trump say "Farmer" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $645 +$31 +5%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $40 +$2 +5%
Will Trump say "Shanghai" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $169 +$7 +4%
Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $3,330 +$88 +3%
Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $153 +$5 +3%
Will Trump say "Great Wall" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $48 +$2 +5%
Will Trump say "Autopen" or "Auto Pen" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $454 +$30 +6%
Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $160 +$7 +4%
Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $1,647 +$95 +6%
Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $1,539 +$171 +11%
Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $918 +$22 +2%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $797 +$63 +8%
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $1,476 +$83 +6%
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $416 +$37 +9%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 15 $1,170 +$125 +11%
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit? May 15 $1,637 +$106 +6%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 13 $3,740 +$29 +1%
Will Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia occur by April 30, 20 May 04 $246 +$8 +3%
Ukraine hits Moscow by April 30, 2026? May 02 $74 +$4 +5%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in April 2026? May 01 $154 +$2 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Megyn Kelly by April 30, 2026? May 01 $27 +$4 +16%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by April 30, 2026 May 01 $446 +$8 +2%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $589 +$47 +8%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $356 +$14 +4%
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? Apr 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Apr 13 $865 +$16 +2%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? Apr 09 $8,930 −$241 -3%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? Apr 08 $3,927 −$130 -3%
Will Russia join the Board of Peace? Apr 01 $331 +$123 +37%
Will India join the Board of Peace? Apr 01 $408 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on March 28? Mar 27 $512 +$10 +2%
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China? Mar 26 $55 +$5 +9%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 26 $1,672 +$27 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 9°C on March 16? Mar 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Mar 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 1? Mar 21 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 14? Mar 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C or higher on March 11? Mar 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 13? Mar 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Will China join the Board of Peace? Mar 20 $1,875 +$60 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 3 BUY No 90¢ $2,771 5h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2,117 5h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $3,734 5h
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $28,684 5h
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $17,665 5h
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $35,635 5h
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $17 6h
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $94 6h
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1,314 6h
Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? BUY No 88¢ $16 2d
Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? BUY No 88¢ $72 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,089 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,642 2d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $9,607 4d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1 4d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $2 4d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $46 4d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $100 4d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $25 4d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1 5d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $2 5d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $2 5d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1 5d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1 5d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1 5d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1 5d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1 5d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $2 5d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $123 5d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89,215.16 · official $89,215.05 (match) · 3500 history records