Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:31:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
43 0x43b2…9847 crypto 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$297 (-47%) realized −$297 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$297
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-56.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -51.6% -56.2% 40% 0% -52.0%
≤30d 5 -51.6% -56.2% 40% 0% -52.0%
≤90d 5 -51.6% -56.2% 40% 0% -52.0%
all 5 -51.6% -56.2% 40% 0% -52.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -56.2% 0% -52.0%
10% -60.4% 0% -56.6%
15% -64.3% 0% -60.8%
20% -67.8% 0% -64.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$104 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$297
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $231 −$161 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 19 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $226 +$13 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.