Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:36:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x43b1…aba6 crypto 61 markets active 4d ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (3445 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$330 (+4%) realized +$330 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate13%70W / 483L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day3445.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$51
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3445 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-36.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 553 -29.4% -36.1% 13% 10% -17.2%
≤30d 553 -29.4% -36.1% 13% 10% -17.2%
≤90d 553 -29.4% -36.1% 13% 10% -17.2%
all 553 -29.4% -36.1% 13% 10% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3445.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.1% 10% -17.2%
10% ← realistic here -42.2% 9% -25.1%
15% -47.8% 8% -32.3%
20% -52.9% 8% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -76% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
56.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$330
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses70 / 483
Open positions3
Markets (closed)553 / 61
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$137
Trades / day3445.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 553 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? No 96¢ 97¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? No 95¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on April 6? Jun 17 $0 $0 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 6? Jun 17 $0 $0 -107%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 76°F or higher on April 5? Jun 17 $0 $0 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 4? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 15°C on April 6? Jun 17 $0 $0 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on April 6? Jun 17 $0 −$1 -658%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on Apri Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 6? Jun 17 $6 −$2 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on April 5? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on April 5? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C or higher on April 6? Jun 17 $0 $0 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on April 5? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C or higher on Apri Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 3, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on March 23? Jun 17 $0 $0 +20409%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on April 5? Jun 17 $1 −$2 -164%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on April 5? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on April 6? Jun 17 $0 $0 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on April 5? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ap Jun 17 $1 $0 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on Apri Jun 17 $2 −$2 -120%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 5? Jun 17 $6 −$4 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on April 6? Jun 17 $1 $0 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 6? Jun 17 $1 −$5 -659%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on Apri Jun 17 $0 −$1 -193%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on April 5? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on April 5? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C or higher on April 6? Jun 17 $0 $0 +34%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 6? Jun 17 $0 −$3 -1664%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on May 15? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C or below on April 6? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 37°C on April 6? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on April 5? Jun 17 $1 −$3 -682%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 5? Jun 17 $0 −$2 -3493%
Solana Up or Down - April 3, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.42 · official $15.41 (match) · 3500 history records