Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:14:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
43 0x43b1…a277 crypto 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$11,493 (-31%) realized −$11,493 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%40W / 58L
Whale WR32%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$377per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,324
7 days+$1,152
14 days−$820
30 days−$3,636
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$8,506
sports 10% −$2,729
tech 3% −$1,020
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-35.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +9.0% -1.3% 64% 62% -0.1%
≤30d 71 -20.1% -27.7% 46% 45% -26.9%
≤90d 98 -28.3% -35.2% 41% 39% -40.2%
all 98 -28.3% -35.2% 41% 39% -40.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.2% 39% -40.2%
10% -41.4% 38% -45.9%
15% -47.0% 36% -51.1%
20% -52.2% 27% -55.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 32% (≥$521) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -57% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$236 vs −$374 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11,493
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses40 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)32%
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions0
Markets (closed)98 / 98
History coverage71d
Avg bet$377
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 98 Trades
no open positions (45 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $291 −$284 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 22 $201 +$90 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 22 $185 −$181 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $203 +$185 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 22 $186 −$181 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $146 +$45 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $147 +$94 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 22 $383 +$147 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 22 $116 −$113 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $147 +$69 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $167 +$80 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $193 +$74 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $166 +$129 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $396 +$165 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $145 −$141 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $141 +$103 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $110 +$29 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 22 $120 +$56 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 22 $313 +$40 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 22 $207 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $144 −$144 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $167 +$239 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $202 −$202 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 22 $201 +$111 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 22 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 22 $184 +$78 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $214 +$173 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 22 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $154 +$165 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $89 +$142 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 22 $140 +$171 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 22 $194 +$148 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $421 +$266 +63%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $446 −$25 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 21 $259 +$187 +72%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $699 −$129 -18%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $570 +$341 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $198 −$191 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $297 +$204 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $287 −$274 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 18 $495 +$294 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 18 $715 +$265 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $316 −$300 -95%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $519 −$511 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $576 −$568 -98%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $896 −$880 -98%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 12 $145 −$140 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $402 −$384 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 08 $342 −$328 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $291 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $291 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $185 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $388 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $203 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $186 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $191 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $146 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $241 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $147 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $122 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $125 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $182 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $283 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $116 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $216 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $147 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $247 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $167 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $267 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $193 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $295 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $166 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $561 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $396 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $145 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $245 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $141 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 246 history records