Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:50:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

43
0x43b0…7bcd
sports · 124 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
+$29 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5 · open +$33
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$180
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses40 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)27%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)122 / 124
History coverage526d
Avg bet$268
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 2 History 122 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$62
14 days+$132
30 days+$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 34¢ 53¢ $87 $133 +$47 (+54%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 74¢ 57¢ $60 $47 −$13 (-22%)
Will RKS Raków Częstochowa win on 2026-03-19? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on November 23? No 41¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on October 31? No 51¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Chargers vs. Jaguars Chargers 60¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Seahawks vs. Falcons Falcons 27¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Solana run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spread: Hawks (-9.5) Bucks 48¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on November 2? No 41¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Grizzlies vs. Spurs Grizzlies 31¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-06? No 61¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bulls vs. 76ers Bulls 32¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Hawks Hawks 53¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage PARIVISION 56¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 26? No 74¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 7? No 40¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5) Timberwolves 49¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Texans vs. Colts Colts 62¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Clippers vs. Pelicans Clippers 47¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Rockets vs. 76ers Rockets 57¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Final Stage: Italy vs. Puerto Rico Puerto Rico 49¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Hornets Hornets 64¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-11? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Chennai Super Kings Chennai Super Kings 53¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $499 −$8 -2%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,820 −$39 -2%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $391 +$8 +2%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $206 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 09 $42 −$2 -4%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 08 $205 −$3 -2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 06 $80 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $147 −$18 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $313 +$195 +62%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $111 +$16 +15%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $106 −$6 -6%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $54 −$2 -4%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $167 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $1,588 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $11 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $527 +$1 +0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $13 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 18 $559 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $73 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $75 $0 -0%
Senators vs. Hurricanes Apr 19 $8 +$6 +70%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Chennai Super Kings Apr 18 $9 −$9 -99%
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5) Apr 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $300 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $100 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $450 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $220 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 17 $140 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 17 $350 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $150 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $220 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $150 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $200 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? Apr 15 $100 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $150 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 15 $155 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $285 −$2 -1%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $350 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $200 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $200 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $200 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $200 −$5 -3%
Lightning vs. Bruins Apr 12 $7 +$5 +82%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-11? Apr 10 $8 −$8 -99%
Pistons vs. Hornets Apr 10 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 10 $9 +$4 +46%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-06? Apr 06 $12 −$12 -99%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 06 $8 −$8 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 53% −$91
other 30% −$45
sports 7% +$12
crypto 4% −$88
economics 3% −$2
world 2% +$244
culture 0% −$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 77¢ $145 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 77¢ $147 1h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 34¢ $194 36h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 34¢ $205 36h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $200 36h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $191 43h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 76¢ $198 2d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 76¢ $202 2d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 66¢ $201 2d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 66¢ $207 2d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 66¢ $207 2d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 66¢ $213 2d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $190 2d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $190 3d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 66¢ $187 3d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 66¢ $193 3d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 66¢ $197 3d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 66¢ $203 3d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 66¢ $197 3d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 66¢ $203 3d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $100 3d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $36 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $15 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -2.3% -11.6% 11% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 20 +2.3% -7.4% 25% 10% -7.7%
≤90d 58 -5.7% -14.7% 19% 14% -8.9%
all 122 -5.0% -14.1% 33% 27% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 27% -9.5%
10% -22.3% 25% -18.2%
15% -29.8% 23% -26.1%
20% -36.7% 20% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $179.88 · official $179.88 (match) · 488 history records