Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:01:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x43ad…e896 other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$16 (-8%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$57
sports 42% +$49
crypto 5% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-51.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -46.9% -51.9% 33% 33% -20.1%
≤30d 9 -46.9% -51.9% 33% 33% -20.1%
≤90d 9 -46.9% -51.9% 33% 33% -20.1%
all 9 -46.9% -51.9% 33% 33% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.9% 33% -20.1%
10% -56.5% 33% -27.8%
15% -60.7% 33% -34.8%
20% -64.6% 22% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$11 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage6d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Netherlands? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $31 +$19 +60%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Brazil? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $21 +$9 +46%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $29 +$21 +73%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $52 −$52 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 57¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Netherlands? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Brazil? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 62¢ $31 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $21 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? AND Exact Score: England 2 - 1 BUY 1¢ $3 4d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $29 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $52 6d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 6d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.35 · official $40.35 (match) · 15 history records