Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:26:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x43aa…3a4a crypto 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$168 (-8%) realized −$168 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate54%19W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$36
other 7% −$129
politics 6% −$6
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-39.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 21 -31.2% -37.8% 52% 10% -11.4%
all 35 -32.8% -39.2% 54% 6% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.2% 6% -18.0%
10% -45.0% 6% -25.8%
15% -50.3% 6% -33.0%
20% -55.2% 6% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$20 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized−$168
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses19 / 16
Open positions5
Markets (closed)35 / 40
History coverage234d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? Jun 12 $60 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 12 $68 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 19 $80 −$71 -88%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 15? May 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16? May 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? May 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in April? May 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 15 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Mar 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Mar 26 $26 +$22 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Mar 26 $85 +$114 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Mar 26 $40 −$39 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Mar 26 $31 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 26 $9 −$8 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Mar 26 $79 +$2 +2%
Will Mireille Damiano win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? Mar 26 $81 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 16? Mar 26 $78 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 5-11? Jan 16 $77 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jan 09 $75 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jan 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jan 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jan 09 $80 +$1 +1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 02 $38 −$5 -14%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $49 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Dec 25 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 3AM ET Dec 25 $13 −$11 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Dec 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 08 $129 −$129 -100%
Will Solana reach $300 in November? Nov 07 $129 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.90 October 27-November 2? Nov 04 $129 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Nov 02 $129 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $18 1h
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $9 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $25 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $7 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $7 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $7 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $7 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 34d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $60 38d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $60 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $50 38d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 38d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? BUY No 100¢ $20 54d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $100 54d
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in April? BUY No 100¢ $100 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $17 87d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.45 · official $157.49 (match) · 108 history records