Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x43a8…7b9b crypto 78 markets active 0h ago coverage 258d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$636 (-1%) realized +$175 · open −$811
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate87%67W / 10L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$1,432per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days+$47
14 days+$47
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% +$114
other 7% −$699
sports 5% +$3
politics 4% −$1
world 1% +$2
economics 1% −$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +4.9% -5.1% 50% 50% -7.5%
≤30d 4 +4.9% -5.1% 50% 50% -7.5%
≤90d 8 +2.5% -7.3% 50% 25% -8.5%
all 77 +0.4% -9.2% 87% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 3% -9.4%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$1,461) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$14 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.94 per $1 lost it wins $2.94
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

258d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized+$175
Unrealized−$811
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses67 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage258d
Avg bet$1,432
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City? Yes 43¢ 4¢ $887 $76 −$811 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marcus Rashford stay at Manchester United? Jun 20 $229 +$38 +17%
Will Marcus Rashford join Aston Villa? Jun 20 $368 −$5 -1%
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? Jun 20 $828 −$71 -8%
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 20 $663 +$84 +13%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 01 $33 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $1,070 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 22 $1,061 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Apr 18 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 02 $306 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Mar 01 $33 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 23 above $110? Feb 28 $4,286 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 26? Feb 27 $4,282 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 24? Feb 25 $4,277 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 February 16-22? Feb 23 $4,273 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 21? Feb 22 $4,269 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 20? Feb 21 $4,265 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on February 19? Feb 20 $4,260 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on February 17? Feb 18 $241 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 1 Feb 18 $410 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on February 17? Feb 18 $3,605 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on February 16? Feb 17 $4,252 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 15? Feb 16 $4,248 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on February 14? Feb 15 $4,243 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on February 13? Feb 14 $4,238 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 12? Feb 13 $2,632 +$8 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? Feb 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on January 4? Jan 05 $1,276 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on January 3? Jan 04 $67 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on January 3? Jan 04 $1,208 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $170 on January 2? Jan 03 $1,274 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $1,269 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 30? Dec 31 $1,268 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 29? Dec 30 $1,267 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 December 22-28? Dec 29 $1,264 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on December 2 Dec 29 $156 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $98,000 on December 28? Dec 29 $1,107 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,300 and $3,400 on December 26 Dec 27 $1,261 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $160 and $170 on December 25? Dec 26 $587 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $170 on December 25? Dec 26 $673 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.10 on December 23? Dec 24 $1,259 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 22? Dec 23 $1,258 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 December 15-21? Dec 22 $1,256 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on December 21? Dec 22 $88 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.50 on December 21? Dec 22 $143 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on December 21? Dec 22 $303 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on December 21? Dec 22 $303 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on December 21? Dec 22 $418 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on December 20? Dec 21 $1,254 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on December 19? Dec 20 $436 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on December 19? Dec 20 $816 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marcus Rashford stay at Manchester United? SELL Yes 25¢ $47 27m
Will Marcus Rashford join Aston Villa? SELL Yes 38¢ $79 27m
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? SELL Yes 53¢ $470 2h
Will Marcus Rashford join Aston Villa? SELL Yes 40¢ $45 2h
Will Marcus Rashford stay at Manchester United? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 2h
Will Marcus Rashford stay at Manchester United? SELL Yes 25¢ $65 2h
Will Marcus Rashford stay at Manchester United? SELL Yes 27¢ $153 2h
Will Marcus Rashford stay at Manchester United? BUY Yes 21¢ $229 2h
Will Marcus Rashford join Aston Villa? SELL Yes 41¢ $53 2h
Will Marcus Rashford join Aston Villa? SELL Yes 40¢ $56 2h
Will Marcus Rashford join Aston Villa? SELL Yes 41¢ $129 2h
Will Marcus Rashford join Aston Villa? BUY Yes 40¢ $69 2h
Will Marcus Rashford join Aston Villa? BUY Yes 39¢ $299 2h
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? SELL Yes 56¢ $82 2h
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? SELL Yes 58¢ $204 2h
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL No 15¢ $52 3h
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL No 18¢ $44 3h
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL No 22¢ $85 3h
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 33¢ $2 5h
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL No 21¢ $60 5h
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? BUY Yes 77¢ $49 5h
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? BUY Yes 56¢ $778 5h
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 42¢ $38 5h
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City? SELL Yes 12¢ $92 6h
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 32¢ $9 6h
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL No 40¢ $265 7h
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 36¢ $2 8h
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL No 23¢ $3 8h
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL No 25¢ $4 8h
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL No 29¢ $4 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.66 · official $83.95 · 272 history records