Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:08:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

43
0x43a8…d77f
sports · 216 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$79 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$80 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$154
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses82 / 95
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions39
Markets (closed)177 / 216
History coverage5d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day98.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 39 History 177 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$80
14 days−$80
30 days−$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Under 71¢ 72¢ $20 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Egypt 69¢ 66¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-4%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? No 91¢ 92¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Over 73¢ 74¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 94¢ 94¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? No 96¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 72¢ 90¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+24%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Morocco 69¢ 83¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+20%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 71¢ 69¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 73¢ 90¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+23%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? No 37¢ 36¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 48¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Spread: Knicks (-16.5) Spurs 95¢ 92¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-4%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 72¢ 74¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 84¢ 86¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Saudi Arabia 59¢ 58¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score No 47¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? No 93¢ 93¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 34¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? No 34¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Knicks (-10.5) Spurs 88¢ 86¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score No 52¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 77¢ 79¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +124%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +76%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +44%
ITF Wuning: Varvara Panshina vs Sara Saito Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Wuning: Anchisa Chanta vs Mai Hontama Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $4 $0 +13%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $7 +$3 +41%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-4.5) Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-2.5) Jun 12 $1 +$1 +114%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 172.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 $0 +12%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +101%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Wuning: Mei Yamaguchi vs Junhan Zhang Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 83°F or below on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Wuning: Yidi Yang vs Mai Hontama Jun 11 $11 −$7 -60%
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-6.5) Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
ITF Wuning: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Sara Saito Jun 11 $9 −$5 -56%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $14 −$1 -5%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $10 −$5 -51%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) Jun 11 $1 +$1 +65%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 11 $1 +$1 +52%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $2 +$1 +50%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 11 $4 +$1 +29%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 11 $2 +$3 +165%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 11 $5 +$3 +65%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 11 $6 +$9 +140%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 11 $2 −$1 -57%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Jun 11 $2 +$1 +34%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 204.5 Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $2 +$1 +42%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 78% −$57
weather 11% −$10
world 6% $0
other 5% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 38¢ $1 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 30¢ $1 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 37¢ $2 9h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY No 91¢ $2 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $3 9h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 37¢ $1 9h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY No 91¢ $2 9h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY No 91¢ $2 9h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 69¢ $3 9h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY No 91¢ $2 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $11 9h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $1 25h
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $1 25h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 35¢ $1 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $1 42h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $1 42h
ITF Wuning: Varvara Panshina vs Sara Saito BUY Varvara Panshina 47¢ $1 42h
ITF Wuning: Varvara Panshina vs Sara Saito BUY Varvara Panshina 45¢ $1 42h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $1 42h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5) BUY PortlandFire 60¢ $1 43h
Spread: Knicks (-16.5) BUY Spurs 95¢ $3 43h
ITF Wuning: Anchisa Chanta vs Mai Hontama BUY Mai Hontama 97¢ $2 43h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 13¢ $1 43h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Czechia 89¢ $2 43h
Spread: Knicks (-10.5) BUY Spurs 88¢ $2 43h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 43h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Czechia 88¢ $2 44h
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 172.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 47h
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 89¢ $2 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 14¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 177 -17.5% -25.3% 46% 37% -17.9%
≤30d 177 -17.5% -25.3% 46% 37% -17.9%
≤90d 177 -17.5% -25.3% 46% 37% -17.9%
all 177 -17.5% -25.3% 46% 37% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover98.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.3% 37% -17.9%
10% ← realistic here -32.5% 32% -25.7%
15% -39.0% 27% -32.9%
20% -45.0% 20% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $153.52 · official $153.52 (match) · 643 history records