Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:31:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

43 0x43a8…e9d9 sports 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d

COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover

! high turnover

Total PnL +$376 (+19%) realized +$508 · open −$132

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip

Net edge+11%after slip

Net WR54%break-even

Win rate54%20W / 17L

Drawdown25%max

Avg bet$42per market

Trades / day11.7pace

Fees−$30est.

Kalshi-fit78%portable

Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

worth copying (survives realistic slippage)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +54%

net ROI/market (all)+20.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	37	+32.6%	+20.0%	54%	54%	+25.7%
≤30d	37	+32.6%	+20.0%	54%	54%	+25.7%
≤90d	37	+32.6%	+20.0%	54%	54%	+25.7%
all	37	+32.6%	+20.0%	54%	54%	+25.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover11.7 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+20.0%	54%	+25.7%
10%	+8.5%	54%	+13.7%
15%	-2.0%	54%	+2.7%
20%	-11.6%	51%	-7.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +33% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -9% → late +72% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$54 vs −$30 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.14 per $1 lost it wins $2.14

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$100

Realized+$508

Unrealized−$132

Win rate (resolved)54%

Wins / losses20 / 17

Est. fees paid−$30

Open positions9

Markets (closed)37 / 46

History coverage4d

Avg bet$42

Trades / day11.7

Drawdown25%

Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 9 History 37 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	21¢	34¢	$20	$32	+$12 (+60%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	31¢	34¢	$20	$21	+$2 (+8%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	Over	51¢	28¢	$30	$17	−$13 (-44%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	65¢	18¢	$49	$13	−$36 (-73%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5	Over	59¢	20¢	$25	$8	−$17 (-67%)
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres	Atlanta Braves	50¢	10¢	$25	$5	−$20 (-80%)
Spread: Algeria (-1.5)	Algeria	38¢	4¢	$30	$3	−$27 (-91%)
Spread: Algeria (-2.5)	Algeria	18¢	2¢	$15	$1	−$14 (-91%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels	Los Angeles Angels	40¢	0¢	$20	$0	−$20 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5	Jun 23	$24	+$62	+262%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$104	+$97	+93%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5	Jun 23	$25	+$70	+285%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5	Jun 23	$25	+$57	+226%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5)	Jun 22	$20	−$20	-98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5	Jun 22	$257	−$69	-27%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	Jun 22	$50	−$49	-99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$25	+$11	+44%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 22	$50	+$70	+140%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$75	+$49	+65%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5)	Jun 22	$50	+$100	+197%
Spread: Egypt (-2.5)	Jun 22	$25	−$25	-98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5	Jun 21	$19	−$18	-98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score	Jun 20	$25	+$21	+86%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5)	Jun 20	$76	−$74	-98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	Jun 20	$75	+$49	+65%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5	Jun 20	$20	+$84	+414%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5	Jun 20	$20	−$20	-98%
Set Handicap: Sierra (-1.5) vs Seidel (+1.5)	Jun 20	$12	+$24	+197%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$55	+$46	+83%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	Jun 20	$55	+$61	+109%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$25	+$16	+62%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5	Jun 19	$50	+$49	+97%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	Jun 19	$30	−$30	-98%
Alex de Minaur vs. Brandon Nakashima: Total Sets O/U 2.5	Jun 19	$15	+$11	+70%
Spread: Athletics (-2.5)	Jun 19	$18	+$31	+172%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics	Jun 19	$185	+$120	+65%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5	Jun 19	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$20	−$20	-98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$55	−$54	-99%
Spread: Canada (-1.5)	Jun 19	$75	+$60	+79%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5	Jun 18	$20	−$20	-98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score	Jun 18	$20	−$20	-98%
Frances Tiafoe vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime: Total Sets O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$5	$0	-6%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Jun 18	$20	−$20	-98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$50	−$49	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5	BUY Over	59¢	$25	1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	51¢	$30	1h
Spread: Algeria (-2.5)	BUY Algeria	18¢	$15	1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	65¢	$50	1h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5)	BUY Algeria	38¢	$30	1h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres	BUY Atlanta Braves	50¢	$25	3h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels	BUY Los Angeles Angels	40¢	$20	3h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5	BUY Over	26¢	$25	4h
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5	BUY Over	27¢	$24	4h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5)	BUY Senegal	14¢	$20	4h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	30¢	$25	7h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	51¢	$104	7h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	34¢	$180	8h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	35¢	$257	9h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	53¢	$50	9h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Argentina	41¢	$50	12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	69¢	$25	13h
Spread: Egypt (-2.5)	BUY Egypt	15¢	$25	27h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	60¢	$75	27h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5)	BUY Egypt	33¢	$50	27h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	25¢	$19	2d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5)	BUY Ecuador	39¢	$25	2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	53¢	$25	2d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5)	BUY Ecuador	44¢	$50	2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	21¢	$20	2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	19¢	$20	2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	60¢	$75	2d
Set Handicap: Sierra (-1.5) vs Seidel (+1.5)	BUY Sierra	33¢	$12	3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	54¢	$55	3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	47¢	$55	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.18 · official $98.73 · 71 history records