Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:24:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
43 0x43a7…b799 other 4 markets active 12h ago coverage 255d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$648 (+14%) realized +$648 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$1,182per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$663
7 days+$663
14 days+$663
30 days+$663
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% −$50
other 37% +$643
sports 11% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +34.2% +21.4% 100% 33% +17.4%
≤30d 3 +34.2% +21.4% 100% 33% +17.4%
≤90d 3 +34.2% +21.4% 100% 33% +17.4%
all 4 +25.1% +13.2% 75% 25% +2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.2% 25% +2.2%
10% +2.4% 25% -7.6%
15% -7.5% 25% -16.5%
20% -16.6% 25% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$221 vs −$50 · ×4.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×13.35 per $1 lost it wins $13.35
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

255d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$648
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage255d
Avg bet$1,182
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $609 +$548 +90%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,119 +$96 +8%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $499 +$20 +4%
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic aft Oct 07 $2,500 −$50 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $1,156 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $508 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $612 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $600 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 60¢ $603 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $519 18h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 72¢ $519 38h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $499 38h
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic aft SELL Yes 97¢ $2,450 252d
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic aft BUY Yes 99¢ $2,500 255d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 11 history records