Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T14:41:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

43
0x43a7…0b46
other · 469 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$257 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$184 · open −$86
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$113
Realized−$184
Unrealized−$86
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses192 / 271
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions18
Markets (closed)463 / 469
History coverage98d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day35.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 18 History 463 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days+$3
14 days−$1
30 days−$316
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 66¢ 48¢ $65 $48 −$18 (-27%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 68¢ 40¢ $41 $24 −$17 (-42%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 55¢ 52¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 57¢ 31¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-46%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Yes 36¢ 12¢ $12 $4 −$8 (-66%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 20¢ 8¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-62%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Yes 48¢ 27¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-43%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Yes 37¢ 2¢ $22 $1 −$21 (-94%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Yes 47¢ 12¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-73%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Yes 49¢ 4¢ $14 $1 −$13 (-93%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Yes 27¢ 6¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-76%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 70¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-55%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-54%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-84%)
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Yes 33¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-98%)
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+25%)
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 4, 2026? No 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? No 1¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 4, 2026? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 18, 2026? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 13, 2026 (ET)? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +120%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from February 24 to Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Jun 13 $6 −$4 -74%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 29, 2026? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026? Jun 13 $2 +$8 +498%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Jun 13 $6 −$8 -122%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 7, 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$13 -136%
Nuclear weapon detonation by December 31? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +79%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $30 +$4 +13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 13 $8 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 13 $79 −$8 -10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 13 $2 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $12 −$7 -58%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $10 +$3 +28%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Jun 12 $24 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $69 −$24 -36%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$1 -41%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $0 $0 -33%
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $0 $0 -25%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $3 $0 +8%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $1 $0 -44%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +57%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 10 $0 $0 -50%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $1 $0 -60%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 09 $5 −$4 -74%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $12 −$10 -84%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 +2%
Ebola pandemic in 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 -8%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 09 $3 $0 -14%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $14 +$9 +63%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $4 +$3 +76%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $4 +$3 +69%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $23 +$35 +154%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $37 +$31 +84%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $0 $0 -25%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $3 +$2 +51%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $0 $0 +50%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $3 $0 -3%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? May 31 $4 −$2 -54%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 31 $1 +$1 +122%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 30 $0 $0 -25%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? May 30 $4 −$2 -39%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 30 $6 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
finance 50% −$412
world 32% +$112
other 14% +$15
tech 2% +$27
politics 1% +$8
economics 0% +$6
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 1m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 3m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 10m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 12m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 32m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $16 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $3 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? SELL Yes 81¢ $3 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $5 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL Yes 61¢ $5 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $2 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $2 3h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL No 86¢ $5 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $3 3h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 3h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $1 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $5 3h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $2 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $2 3h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY Yes 81¢ $3 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $2 7h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -8.9% -17.6% 33% 29% -7.7%
≤30d 173 +13.4% +2.6% 35% 29% -28.9%
≤90d 420 +7.3% -2.9% 40% 33% -14.4%
all 463 +12.1% +1.4% 41% 35% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover35.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.4% 35% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -8.3% 28% -21.5%
15% -17.1% 21% -29.1%
20% -25.3% 16% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.78 · official $112.78 (match) · 3500 history records