Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:13:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
43 0x43a6…7eeb crypto 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$69 (+60%) realized +$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +259% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +200% what you keep after slip
Net edge+200%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% +$35
sports 29% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+224.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +258.8% +224.7% 50% 38% +23.6%
≤30d 8 +258.8% +224.7% 50% 38% +23.6%
≤90d 8 +258.8% +224.7% 50% 38% +23.6%
all 8 +258.8% +224.7% 50% 38% +23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +224.7% 38% +23.6%
10% +193.6% 38% +11.8%
15% +165.2% 38% +1.0%
20% +139.2% 38% -8.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +60% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +259% · $-wt +60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$6 · ×4.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.04 per $1 lost it wins $4.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 28 $2 +$8 +366%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 28 $1 +$48 +4529%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 28 $55 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score in First Half AND Panama vs. E Jun 27 $34 +$34 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records