Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:26:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

43
0x43a4…53f5
crypto · 905 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
+$28 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$28 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses496 / 407
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)903 / 905
History coverage51d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day38.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 2 History 903 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$5
14 days+$20
30 days+$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 8.0% and 9.0%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the Green Party (MP) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+40%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Granollers/Zeballos vs Helioevaara/Patten Helioevaara/Patten 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $19 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $7 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 11 $8 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $8 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$3 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$3 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% +$36
other 1% −$5
world 0% $0
sports 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $3 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $4 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 131 -0.4% -9.9% 56% 47% -10.5%
≤30d 625 +2.7% -7.0% 59% 34% -8.0%
≤90d 903 -0.8% -10.2% 55% 33% -9.4%
all 903 -0.8% -10.2% 55% 33% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover38.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 33% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 20% -18.1%
15% -26.7% 13% -26.0%
20% -33.9% 8% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.17 · official $0.17 (match) · 2986 history records