Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:25:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x43a2…cba6 crypto 208 markets active 4d ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$671 (-23%) realized −$672 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%104W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$58
14 days−$126
30 days−$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 34% −$134
other 22% −$309
crypto 17% −$90
culture 9% −$187
economics 5% −$13
sports 5% +$61
politics 5% −$19
world 2% −$10
tech 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +5.3% -4.7% 46% 41% -39.5%
≤30d 109 -13.8% -22.0% 44% 35% -29.7%
≤90d 195 -13.6% -21.8% 51% 38% -19.1%
all 207 -15.4% -23.4% 50% 38% -31.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.4% 38% -31.4%
10% -30.7% 30% -38.0%
15% -37.4% 22% -44.0%
20% -43.6% 17% -49.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$12 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$672
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses104 / 103
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)207 / 208
History coverage112d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 207 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 93¢ 99¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -4% and -2% in May? Jun 25 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$2 +227%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +139%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +56%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 25 $1 +$2 +165%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 25 $1 +$11 +991%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$4 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$4 +85%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +15%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +10%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$1 -11%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 $0 +9%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$6 +118%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$6 +108%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$2 +30%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Accenture (ACN) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$7 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 83¢ $35 3d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 3d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 3d
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 3d
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 3d
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -4% and -2% in May? BUY No 73¢ $5 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $6 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 5d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 5d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.65 · official $10.65 (match) · 427 history records