Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:51:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x439e…880d world 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-2%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate37%15W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$10
other 16% $0
politics 5% −$1
sports 4% $0
crypto 4% −$3
tech 3% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +2.1% -7.6% 50% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 17 -0.4% -9.9% 35% 6% -11.4%
≤90d 17 -0.4% -9.9% 35% 6% -11.4%
all 41 -6.9% -15.8% 37% 2% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 2% -11.5%
10% -23.9% 0% -20.0%
15% -31.2% 0% -27.7%
20% -38.0% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses15 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage468d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $43 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 +8%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $13 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 17 $38 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $18 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $18 $0 +1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $32 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $67 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $18 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $5 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $2 $0 +13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $38 −$10 -26%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $2 $0 -4%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $53 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $53 $0 +1%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jan 31 $2 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 04 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before August? Jul 03 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Jaime Dunn win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 01 $8 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Jun 29 $8 $0 +4%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 25 $1 $0 -60%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Apr 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C Apr 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Apr 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 09 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? Apr 07 $12 −$3 -22%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 05 $13 $0 +1%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $13 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before April? Mar 27 $13 $0 -0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 26 $13 $0 -2%
Georgescu banned from Romania election? Mar 23 $11 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 49°F or higher on March 8? Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $43 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $43 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $13 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $13 28h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $38 37h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $21 37h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $16 37h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $18 15d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 15d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 15d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $4 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $15 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $18 15d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $33 16d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $33 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $31 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $12 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $8 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $31 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $23 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $16 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $2 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $16 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $18 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 123 history records