Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:14:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x439b…58ba politics 224 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$27 (-1%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate26%57W / 163L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$8
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$6
other 29% −$15
crypto 10% $0
world 6% −$4
sports 5% +$1
tech 3% −$9
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 93 -0.7% -10.2% 3% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 175 -0.9% -10.4% 18% 0% -10.4%
all 220 -0.7% -10.2% 26% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -10.3%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.9%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses57 / 163
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)220 / 224
History coverage99d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 220 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 97¢ 96¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $22 $0 -0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 15 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $55 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $17 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $21 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 14 $22 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $16 $0 -1%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $16 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $14 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $23 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $22 $0 -0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $27 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $51 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $38 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $25 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $77 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $34 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $18 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $56 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $21 $0 -2%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $18 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $20 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $31 $0 -0%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $6 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $43 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $8 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $68 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $42 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $14 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $37 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $26 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $15 $0 -2%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $33 $0 -1%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $46 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $47 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $18 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $58 $0 -0%
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? Jun 05 $34 −$2 -5%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 04 $27 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $33 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $37 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $8 50m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $8 1h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 51¢ $10 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $5 2h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 4h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 4h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 51¢ $10 4h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 8h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 8h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $7 9h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $7 9h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $8 11h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $8 11h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $7 12h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $7 12h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $7 12h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5 13h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 16h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 84¢ $7 16h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $7 19h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $7 20h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $7 20h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $5 21h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $5 21h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 22h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 22h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $10 25h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $10 25h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $8 28h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $8 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.94 · official $22.94 (match) · 1257 history records