Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:59:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
43 0x4399…8d27 crypto 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+0%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%38W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$252per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$27
other 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 13 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 38 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 38 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$999) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses38 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)38 / 41
History coverage58d
Avg bet$252
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? No 98¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? May 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? May 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 24? May 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? May 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? May 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 19? May 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 16? May 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 15? May 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14? May 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? May 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 10? May 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9? May 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 8? May 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7? May 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 6? May 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 5? May 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? May 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 3? May 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 2? May 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 1? May 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 29? Apr 29 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 28? Apr 29 $1,025 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $1,022 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 26? Apr 26 $1,021 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 25? Apr 25 $1,020 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 24? Apr 24 $1,019 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $1,016 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 22? Apr 23 $1,015 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 21? Apr 21 $1,012 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 20? Apr 20 $1,005 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 19? Apr 19 $999 +$7 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $5 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $8 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 10? BUY No 100¢ $5 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 41d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 44d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 45d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 1? BUY No 100¢ $10 46d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 48d
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? BUY No 98¢ $3 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.06 · official $11.06 (match) · 80 history records