Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:33:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
43 0x4392…6b4e politics 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 230d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$117 (-7%) realized −$47 · open −$70
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$1,070
politics 23% +$729
other 6% +$88
world 6% +$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 7 +44.2% +30.4% 57% 57% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.4% 57% -16.1%
10% +18.0% 57% -24.1%
15% +6.6% 57% -31.5%
20% -3.9% 57% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$236 vs −$353 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$47
Unrealized−$70
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage230d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Over 30¢ 12¢ $119 $50 −$70 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Dec 20 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will the government shutdown end November 13? Nov 13 $100 +$222 +222%
Will the government shutdown end November 12? Nov 13 $250 +$556 +223%
Will Donald Trump say "Biden" 4+ times during Syria President events o Nov 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on October 29? Oct 30 $100 +$67 +67%
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $100 +$98 +98%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2025-10-29? Oct 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $122 1h
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor BUY Tate 88¢ $1,000 178d
Will the government shutdown end November 13? SELL Yes 93¢ $322 215d
Will the government shutdown end November 13? BUY Yes 29¢ $100 216d
Will the government shutdown end November 12? BUY No 31¢ $250 216d
Will Donald Trump say "Biden" 4+ times during Syria President events o BUY Yes 53¢ $50 218d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on October 29? SELL No 99¢ $167 228d
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale? SELL Yes 99¢ $198 229d
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2025-10-29? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 230d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on October 29? BUY No 59¢ $100 230d
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale? BUY Yes 50¢ $100 230d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.72 · official $13.92 · 12 history records