Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:13:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
43 0x438f…29f4 crypto 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$934per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$9
other 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-48.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 7 -71.4% -74.1% 29% 0% -13.9%
≤90d 8 -75.0% -77.4% 25% 0% -45.4%
all 14 -42.8% -48.2% 57% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.2% 0% -9.6%
10% -53.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -57.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -61.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -71% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Open positions45
Markets (closed)14 / 10
History coverage131d
Avg bet$934
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 45 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $77 $77 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 20¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+1068%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 14¢ $0 $2 +$1 (+736%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 14¢ $0 $2 +$1 (+719%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 12¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+630%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 7¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+299%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+234%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+199%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+181%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+109%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+68%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+15%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+9%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-14%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-26%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-32%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-62%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-73%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-79%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-79%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-85%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-85%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-85%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-85%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 May 25-31? May 30 $14 $0 +0%
Gensyn FDV above $2B one day after launch? May 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on February 18 Mar 13 $141 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on February 16? Feb 18 $1,032 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 15? Feb 16 $922 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on February 15? Feb 16 $1,749 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 13? Feb 15 $2,693 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on February 12? Feb 13 $2,691 +$3 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $77 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 May 25-31? BUY No 100¢ $14 23d
Gensyn FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $5 54d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 85d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on February 18 BUY No 100¢ $141 124d
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on February 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,032 127d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on February 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,749 127d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $922 127d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 13? BUY No 100¢ $696 130d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 13? BUY No 100¢ $1,997 130d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on February 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,691 130d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.90 · official $101.91 (match) · 79 history records