Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:15:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
43 0x438c…79d7 world 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$84 (-2%) realized −$94 · open +$10
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate55%11W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$242now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$79
7 days−$79
14 days−$79
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 96% +$21
sports 4% −$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -3.1% -12.3% 50% 0% -13.0%
≤30d 6 +1.5% -8.2% 67% 17% -10.1%
≤90d 20 -4.5% -13.6% 55% 30% -11.6%
all 20 -4.5% -13.6% 55% 30% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 30% -11.6%
10% -21.8% 15% -20.1%
15% -29.4% 0% -27.8%
20% -36.3% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$35 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$242
Realized−$94
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses11 / 9
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage86d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Yes 86¢ 90¢ $232 $242 +$10 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $788 −$120 -15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $234 −$10 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $199 +$3 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $816 +$48 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $254 +$45 +18%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 28 $504 +$16 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 12 $164 +$46 +28%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 02 $125 +$20 +16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $83 −$28 -34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $100 +$25 +25%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? Apr 26 $8 $0 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 25 $67 −$23 -35%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 25 $80 −$80 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 24 $100 −$34 -34%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 23 $100 −$1 -1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 23 $102 −$21 -21%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 10 $94 +$8 +8%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $50 +$13 +26%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $7 +$1 +8%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $20 +$3 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $232 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $232 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $224 6h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $224 6h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $234 13h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $235 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $202 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $202 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $199 30h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $199 30h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $201 41h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 39¢ $202 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $362 7d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $361 7d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $349 8d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $350 8d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $316 12d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $315 12d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $299 14d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $299 14d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $254 18d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $254 18d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $149 22d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $150 22d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $210 34d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $210 34d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $117 43d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $117 43d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $145 43d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $145 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $241.74 · official $241.74 (match) · 61 history records