Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:42:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

43
0x4388…5050
other · 708 markets active 7h ago
3.0score
+$11,697 +17%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$9,545 · open +$374
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7,996
Realized+$9,545
Unrealized+$374
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses360 / 242
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions119
Markets (closed)602 / 708
History coverage42d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day65.7
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit47%
Chart Positions 119 History 602 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$898
7 days+$2,623
14 days+$3,460
30 days+$7,005
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? No 45¢ 79¢ $377 $654 +$278 (+74%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 71¢ 94¢ $402 $530 +$127 (+32%)
Will Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin be above 85%? No 55¢ 68¢ $335 $418 +$82 (+25%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 59¢ 69¢ $295 $345 +$50 (+17%)
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1% and 1.5%? No 56¢ 57¢ $271 $277 +$6 (+2%)
Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $8.0B? Yes 50¢ 52¢ $255 $262 +$7 (+3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 59¢ 52¢ $295 $258 −$38 (-13%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No 68¢ 80¢ $204 $240 +$36 (+18%)
World Cup: Messi to Score 2+ Penalties? No 45¢ 49¢ $188 $205 +$17 (+9%)
Amazon 2026 capex above $200B? No 22¢ 18¢ $245 $192 −$52 (-21%)
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $29B? Yes 48¢ 47¢ $180 $175 −$5 (-3%)
Will Christian Pulisic score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 45¢ 73¢ $100 $162 +$62 (+62%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June? No 84¢ 94¢ $143 $160 +$17 (+12%)
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 Action of the Year? No 38¢ 46¢ $129 $154 +$26 (+20%)
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.35B? No 72¢ 75¢ $145 $152 +$7 (+5%)
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.125B? Yes 55¢ 68¢ $121 $147 +$27 (+22%)
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.0B? No 45¢ 45¢ $143 $142 −$1 (-0%)
Will 7+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 57¢ 60¢ $131 $138 +$7 (+5%)
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.85B? Yes 57¢ 84¢ $87 $129 +$41 (+47%)
Will Citigroup (C) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $2.9B? No 62¢ 55¢ $139 $123 −$16 (-12%)
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 52¢ 76¢ $83 $122 +$39 (+47%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 50¢ 70¢ $85 $119 +$34 (+39%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? Yes 61¢ 54¢ $134 $116 −$17 (-13%)
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.6B? No 29¢ 30¢ $108 $108 +$0 (+0%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June? No 69¢ 94¢ $79 $107 +$29 (+36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO: Open Price above IPO Price? Jun 13 $19 +$3 +17%
SpaceX IPO: Trading Halted for Volatility? Jun 13 $289 +$427 +147%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 12? Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 12? Jun 13 $43 −$43 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 12? Jun 13 $129 −$53 -41%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 13 $25 −$21 -84%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 13 $39 −$37 -95%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? Jun 13 $293 −$289 -98%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $105 +$97 +92%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 12? Jun 12 $61 +$74 +122%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $50 +$9 +19%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $256 +$150 +59%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $524 +$173 +33%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $377 +$140 +37%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $58 +$43 +75%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $63 +$39 +61%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $270 +$201 +74%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $737 −$83 -11%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $105 −$54 -51%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.25T by June 30? Jun 12 $38 −$25 -67%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? Jun 12 $1,103 +$262 +24%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 12 $445 −$12 -3%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $85 on the final trading day of June 2026 Jun 12 $41 +$26 +63%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $158 +$101 +64%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 11? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Adobe Q2 total ARR be above $26.0B? Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 11? Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 11? Jun 12 $107 −$95 -89%
Will Adobe (ADBE) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 12 $128 −$107 -84%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in June? Jun 12 $582 +$192 +33%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 11? Jun 11 $90 +$96 +107%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 11? Jun 11 $71 +$238 +335%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 11? Jun 11 $467 +$157 +34%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 11? Jun 11 $43 +$67 +157%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 11? Jun 11 $22 +$70 +314%
Will Oracle Q4 Cloud revenue be above $10.25B? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Oracle 2026 capital expenditures be above $55B? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Oracle 2026 capital expenditures be above $52.5B? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Oracle Q4 Cloud revenue be above $11B? Jun 11 $8 +$2 +29%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $63 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 11 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Oracle (ORCL) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Oracle Q4 Remaining Performance Obligations be above $700B? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 10? Jun 11 $24 −$24 -100%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 11 $175 +$400 +229%
Will Oracle Q4 Cloud revenue be above $9.75B? Jun 11 $28 −$28 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 10? Jun 11 $121 −$105 -87%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 10? Jun 11 $17 −$17 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 76% +$6,142
finance 17% +$2,584
tech 3% +$665
world 2% +$117
politics 1% +$111
culture 1% +$240
crypto 0% +$23
sports 0% +$37
economics 0% +$6
weather 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 Action of the Year? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 Action of the Year? BUY No 38¢ $27 7h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL No 75¢ $120 10h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL No 64¢ $95 12h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY No 22¢ $7 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 19¢ $19 13h
Will Lionel Messi score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 51¢ $105 13h
World Cup: Messi to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY No 45¢ $117 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $16 13h
Will 9+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $26 14h
Will 9+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $102 14h
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 21¢ $27 14h
Will 7+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo BUY No 57¢ $133 14h
Will 8+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo BUY Yes 28¢ $6 14h
Will 6+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo BUY No 28¢ $4 14h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY No 71¢ $58 14h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY No 31¢ $65 18h
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 16¢ $34 18h
World Cup: Messi to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY No 45¢ $93 18h
World Cup: Messi to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY Yes 59¢ $24 18h
Will Kai Havertz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $25 18h
Will Kai Havertz score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 21¢ $15 18h
Will Kai Havertz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $33 18h
Will Julian Alvarez score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 68¢ $51 18h
Will Julian Alvarez score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 48¢ $10 18h
Will Erling Haaland score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 64¢ $39 18h
Will Christian Pulisic score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 46¢ $37 18h
Will Christian Pulisic score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 45¢ $65 18h
Will Christian Pulisic score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $36 18h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $67 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 +5.3% -4.7% 49% 49% +9.5%
≤30d 367 +15.0% +4.1% 60% 56% +5.2%
≤90d 602 +13.8% +2.9% 60% 54% +8.1%
all 602 +13.8% +2.9% 60% 54% +8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover65.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.9% 54% +8.1%
10% ← realistic here -6.9% 44% -2.2%
15% -15.9% 36% -11.7%
20% -24.2% 29% -20.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,996.03 · official $7,995.98 (match) · 3500 history records