Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:40:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x4388…be59 other 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$47 (-0%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%16W / 116L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$17
14 days−$24
30 days−$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$76
politics 27% −$18
sports 23% −$2
crypto 5% −$1
finance 5% −$1
world 4% −$3
economics 3% −$3
culture 2% −$3
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -1.1% -10.5% 5% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 63 -1.0% -10.4% 11% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 115 -0.7% -10.1% 11% 0% -10.1%
all 132 -0.6% -10.1% 12% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses16 / 116
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
History coverage99d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 98¢ 98¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $206 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion Jun 16 $24 −$2 -7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 16 $48 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $334 −$2 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $97 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 15 $143 −$2 -2%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $72 −$1 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $161 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $89 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $50 $0 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $265 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $20 $0 -2%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $52 $0 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $48 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $39 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $214 −$1 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $57 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $296 −$2 -1%
Will Brazil score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $56 −$3 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $105 −$1 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 10 $95 −$1 -1%
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $48 $0 -1%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $98 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $111 −$1 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $289 $0 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $152 −$1 -1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $57 $0 -0%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 04 $56 −$1 -1%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $46 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $40 $0 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 02 $51 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $48 −$1 -1%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 02 $44 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $422 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $104 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $238 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $294 −$2 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $50 $0 -1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $245 $0 +0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $52 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $55 $0 -0%
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $46 $0 +0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 27 $45 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $55 42m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $52 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $52 8h
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $53 8h
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $53 16h
Will the Edmonton Oilers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion SELL No 89¢ $22 17h
Will the Edmonton Oilers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion BUY No 95¢ $24 22h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 98¢ $48 23h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $48 31h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $43 31h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $43 36h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 90¢ $48 36h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 90¢ $48 42h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $57 43h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $58 2d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $50 2d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $50 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $45 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $46 2d
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $61 2d
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $61 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $58 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $58 3d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 95¢ $48 3d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $49 3d
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 94¢ $55 3d
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 94¢ $55 3d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $49 3d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $49 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 94¢ $42 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.86 · official $54.86 (match) · 498 history records