Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:19:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
43 0x4387…afb3 weather 100 markets active 11h ago coverage 56d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this weather specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$26 (+23%) realized +$32 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +66% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +50% what you keep after slip
Net edge+50%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%39W / 27L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$29
14 days+$29
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$23
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+50.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 +68.4% +52.4% 59% 59% +25.6%
≤30d 64 +68.4% +52.4% 59% 59% +25.6%
≤90d 66 +65.8% +50.0% 59% 59% +24.2%
all 66 +65.8% +50.0% 59% 59% +24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +50.0% 59% +24.2%
10% +35.6% 53% +12.3%
15% +22.5% 42% +1.4%
20% +10.5% 33% -8.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +66% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +134% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$32
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses39 / 27
Open positions34
Markets (closed)66 / 100
History coverage56d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? Yes 10¢ 100¢ $1 $10 +$9 (+871%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? Yes 33¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+203%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 17? Yes 44¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+127%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 17? No 56¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+78%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? No 61¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+64%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 17? No 62¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+61%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? No 64¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+56%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 17? No 67¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+49%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? No 68¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+47%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? No 73¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? No 89¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 17? No 92¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Yes 40¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+150%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? No 68¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 17? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 17? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 17? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 17? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $1 +$9 +830%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 17 $2 +$4 +200%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 17 $1 +$2 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 17 $1 +$2 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 17 $1 +$4 +428%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +137%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 17 $1 +$2 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 16? Jun 17 $2 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +406%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$5 +434%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +221%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +202%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +324%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? SELL No 71¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 67¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 41¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 17? BUY No 54¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 56¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 47¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 53¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 68¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? BUY No 52¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 78¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 68¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 73¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 70¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 70¢ $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.23 · official $29.23 (match) · 166 history records