Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:47:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
43 0x4385…5560 other 597 markets active 0h ago coverage 192d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$369 (+0%) realized +$376 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate74%435W / 151L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$256per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$60est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$390now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$81
7 days+$328
14 days+$216
30 days+$219
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$60
crypto 13% +$7
tech 3% +$1
weather 3% +$3
sports 3% +$208
culture 2% $0
politics 0% $0
world 0% −$4
finance 0% −$8
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 +11.5% +0.9% 39% 34% -11.6%
≤30d 150 +2.0% -7.7% 45% 23% -13.2%
≤90d 271 +2.4% -7.3% 68% 15% -10.1%
all 586 +1.4% -8.2% 74% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 8% -9.6%
10% -17.0% 5% -18.2%
15% -25.0% 4% -26.1%
20% -32.4% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$390
Realized+$376
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses435 / 151
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions11
Markets (closed)586 / 597
History coverage192d
Avg bet$256
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 586 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set 2 Winner: Boisson vs Yastremska Boisson 50¢ 50¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Set 1 Winner: Boisson vs Yastremska Yastremska 51¢ 50¢ $48 $47 −$1 (-2%)
Boisson vs. Yastremska: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Under 50¢ 50¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs 100 Thieves 57¢ 55¢ $48 $46 −$2 (-4%)
Boisson vs. Yastremska: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Set Handicap: Boisson (-1.5) vs Yastremska (+1.5) Yastremska 50¢ 50¢ $44 $43 −$1 (-2%)
Set Handicap: Yastremska (-1.5) vs Boisson (+1.5) Yastremska 51¢ 50¢ $41 $40 −$1 (-2%)
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska Dayana Yastremska 51¢ 50¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Algeria 58¢ 57¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Over 57¢ 56¢ $19 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska Lois Boisson 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Shelton vs. Kyrgios: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $76 −$3 -4%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Khachanov vs. Quinn: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Game Handicap: Game Master (-1.5) vs Grey Trac (+1.5) Jun 16 $39 −$39 -100%
Lajal vs. Blanchet: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $9 $0 -2%
Boisson vs. Yastremska: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $51 −$3 -6%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $56 +$3 +6%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $19 +$17 +87%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 +$38 +388%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $35 +$26 +73%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $49 −$2 -5%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $49 −$3 -6%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 15 $47 −$3 -6%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $49 +$42 +86%
Sweden to win the second half? Jun 15 $49 +$55 +113%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $48 +$80 +165%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $49 +$123 +249%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $27 +$6 +24%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $29 +$15 +52%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $38 +$8 +21%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Mihalikova/Nicholls vs Fernandez/Siegemu Jun 14 $10 +$7 +76%
ITF Monastir: Dominick Mosejczuk vs Cesar Bouchelaghem Jun 14 $49 +$47 +95%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $49 −$12 -25%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $49 −$19 -38%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $36 −$5 -15%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $111 −$4 -4%
Türkiye to score first vs. Australia? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 −$9 -89%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $59 −$58 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$3 -29%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 14 $29 +$24 +81%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Second half draw? Jun 14 $29 +$50 +172%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $10 +$22 +223%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $49 +$59 +121%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $47 −$47 -100%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set 1 Winner: Boisson vs Yastremska BUY Yastremska 51¢ $13 2m
Set 1 Winner: Boisson vs Yastremska BUY Yastremska 51¢ $32 2m
Set 1 Winner: Boisson vs Yastremska SELL Yastremska 49¢ $32 2m
Set 1 Winner: Boisson vs Yastremska SELL Yastremska 49¢ $13 2m
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska SELL Lois Boisson 50¢ $22 6m
Set 1 Winner: Boisson vs Yastremska BUY Yastremska 51¢ $44 6m
Set Handicap: Yastremska (-1.5) vs Boisson (+1.5) SELL Yastremska 49¢ $0 12m
Boisson vs. Yastremska: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 SELL Under 49¢ $0 13m
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska SELL Lois Boisson 49¢ $1 25m
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska SELL Lois Boisson 49¢ $1 26m
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 51¢ $9 39m
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Lois Boisson 51¢ $9 39m
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 51¢ $6 39m
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Lois Boisson 51¢ $8 39m
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 51¢ $9 39m
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Lois Boisson 51¢ $10 39m
Set 2 Winner: Boisson vs Yastremska SELL Boisson 49¢ $1 46m
Set 1 Winner: Boisson vs Yastremska BUY Yastremska 51¢ $7 49m
Set Handicap: Boisson (-1.5) vs Yastremska (+1.5) SELL Yastremska 49¢ $6 55m
Set Handicap: Boisson (-1.5) vs Yastremska (+1.5) SELL Yastremska 49¢ $3 55m
Set Handicap: Boisson (-1.5) vs Yastremska (+1.5) BUY Yastremska 50¢ $3 55m
Set Handicap: Boisson (-1.5) vs Yastremska (+1.5) SELL Yastremska 49¢ $5 55m
Set Handicap: Boisson (-1.5) vs Yastremska (+1.5) BUY Yastremska 50¢ $5 55m
Set Handicap: Boisson (-1.5) vs Yastremska (+1.5) BUY Yastremska 51¢ $6 55m
Set Handicap: Boisson (-1.5) vs Yastremska (+1.5) SELL Yastremska 49¢ $3 55m
Set Handicap: Boisson (-1.5) vs Yastremska (+1.5) BUY Yastremska 50¢ $3 55m
Set Handicap: Boisson (-1.5) vs Yastremska (+1.5) BUY Yastremska 50¢ $3 55m
Set Handicap: Boisson (-1.5) vs Yastremska (+1.5) BUY Yastremska 50¢ $5 55m
Set Handicap: Boisson (-1.5) vs Yastremska (+1.5) SELL Yastremska 49¢ $3 55m
Set Handicap: Boisson (-1.5) vs Yastremska (+1.5) SELL Yastremska 49¢ $5 55m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $390.03 · official $390.03 (match) · 1694 history records