Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:25:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x4385…f4b1 crypto 2331 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d only
✗ bot/MM pace (222 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,710 (+58%) realized +$1,685 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate11%90W / 698L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day221.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$121
7 days−$75
14 days−$55
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$61
other 5% +$4
sports 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (222 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 721 -30.2% -36.8% 8% 6% -14.1%
≤30d 788 +0.9% -8.7% 11% 8% -13.6%
≤90d 788 +0.9% -8.7% 11% 8% -13.6%
all 788 +0.9% -8.7% 11% 8% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover221.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 8% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 6% -21.9%
15% -25.4% 4% -29.4%
20% -32.7% 4% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +102% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×5.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$1,685
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses90 / 698
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)788 / 2331
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day221.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 788 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on March 31? Up 0¢ 35¢ $0 $7 +$7 (+34439%)
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? No 1¢ 70¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+6950%)
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Marcos Giron 1¢ 68¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+6750%)
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 1¢ 52¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+5115%)
Ismael Díaz: 4+ goals + assists Yes 1¢ 40¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+3900%)
Tomás Rodríguez: 4+ goals + assists Yes 1¢ 38¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+3750%)
Cecilio Waterman: 4+ goals + assists Yes 1¢ 38¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+3700%)
José Fajardo: 4+ goals + assists Yes 1¢ 36¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+3550%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Down 0¢ 16¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Betmoar FDV above $400M one day after launch? Yes 1¢ 10¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+948%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 490 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 1? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on April 28? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 31, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Luka Dončić: Points O/U 31.5 Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Matt McCarty finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 Texas Children's Ho Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 2, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Mandatory - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will XRP dip to $1.25 on March 14? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Blues vs. Kings: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
EUR/USD Up or Down on March 19? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-16.5) Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 53.5 in Game 1? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 35.5 in Game 1? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 4, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 1, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 2? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 49.5 in Game 2? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Damas vs. Shelbayh: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on March 15? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on March 30? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Set Handicap: Starodubtseva (-1.5) vs Zhang (+1.5) Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 1, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-12.5) Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 3, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 35m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $2 37m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $2 38m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 40m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $2 43m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $2 44m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 50m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 55m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 56m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 57m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $1 58m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.25 · official $24.43 (match) · 3500 history records