Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:37:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

43
0x4384…3fff
other · 13 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$96 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$88 · open −$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$611
Realized−$88
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)1 / 13
History coverage6d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%
Chart Positions 12 History 1 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$88
7 days−$88
14 days−$88
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Yes 38¢ 46¢ $200 $239 +$39 (+19%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 23¢ 23¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 29¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 25¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-15%)
Will Iraq win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-17%)
Will Qatar reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $50 $30 −$20 (-39%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 32¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 28¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-11%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 21¢ 19¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-11%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $88 $0 −$88 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $179 −$88 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% −$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $611.04 · official $610.63 (match) · 15 history records