Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:18:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
43 0x4383…3d32 other 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$577 (+0%) realized +$574 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate20%25W / 103L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$1,218per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$713now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$11
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$185
politics 23% −$46
sports 18% +$421
world 3% −$1
economics 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$3
culture 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 67 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
all 128 +0.7% -8.9% 20% 11% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 11% -9.2%
10% -17.6% 11% -17.9%
15% -25.6% 9% -25.8%
20% -32.9% 7% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,387) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$9 · ×6.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$713
Realized+$574
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses25 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage136d
Avg bet$1,218
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $710 $713 +$3 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 28 $574 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 28 $2,567 −$3 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 27 $575 −$1 -0%
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Jun 27 $579 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $2,302 −$3 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $582 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $579 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,701 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $3,244 −$4 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,267 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,194 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $1,175 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,254 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $1,275 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $4,499 −$5 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,075 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 03 $357 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? Jun 03 $459 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $1,665 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 28 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1,576 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,286 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $1,009 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $1,217 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $2,637 −$4 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $1,356 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $2,336 −$3 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,371 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $1,387 −$2 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,347 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $1,387 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $1,376 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $2,503 −$3 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $4,778 −$5 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $1,270 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $3,522 −$4 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 02 $242 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 02 $280 +$1 +0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $2,739 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $807 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $1,284 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $1,352 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $4,265 −$4 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $1,222 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $1,145 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $1,315 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $3,293 −$3 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,272 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $573 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $574 3h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $576 5h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $576 7h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $574 23h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $575 26h
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next SELL No 100¢ $578 27h
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next BUY No 100¢ $579 30h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $576 7d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $577 7d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $579 7d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $580 7d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $581 9d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $582 9d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $578 9d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $579 9d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $710 12d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $849 14d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $850 14d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,247 14d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,249 14d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,265 14d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,267 15d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,320 15d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,321 15d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,192 15d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,194 15d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,173 21d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,175 21d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,252 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $712.95 · official $712.95 (match) · 427 history records