Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:38:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
43 0x4383…dbdd sports 579 markets active 0h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%262W / 307L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$28
14 days+$0
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$30
other 40% −$49
world 1% +$5
crypto 0% −$3
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 106 +16.7% +5.5% 57% 57% +9.7%
≤30d 381 +2.9% -6.9% 48% 48% -11.4%
≤90d 569 +0.8% -8.8% 46% 46% -11.5%
all 569 +0.8% -8.8% 46% 46% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 46% -11.5%
10% -17.5% 45% -20.0%
15% -25.5% 43% -27.7%
20% -32.8% 36% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses262 / 307
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions10
Markets (closed)569 / 579
History coverage44d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 569 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Borges (+1.5) Borges 54¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) Bellucci 58¢ 53¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Alex Baena: 1+ goals Yes 29¢ 32¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 55¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Martin Landaluce 67¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Nikoloz Basilashvili 59¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Frances Tiafoe 55¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Yes 54¢ 53¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Set Handicap: Tien (-1.5) vs Schoenhaus (+1.5) Tien 58¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 279 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +123%
Will Grêmio Novorizontino vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +215%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Athletic Club vs. Goiás EC end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +206%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +27%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +73%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Cuiabá EC vs. Vila Nova FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $3 +$3 +101%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $1 +$1 +128%
Set Handicap: Landaluce (-1.5) vs Gentzsch (+1.5) Jun 14 $2 +$2 +93%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Set Handicap: Perricard (-1.5) vs Kovacevic (+1.5) Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Fritz (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +37%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Set Handicap: Kudermetova (-1.5) vs Kraus (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 -25%
Kudermetova vs. Kraus: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 -13%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $1 +$1 +119%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 +$1 +46%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +67%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Set Handicap: Collignon (-1.5) vs Agut (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Türkiye to score first vs. Australia? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Ché Adams: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +76%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 +$1 +108%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +39%
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
Set Handicap: Balshaw (-1.5) vs Galan (+1.5) Jun 13 $1 $0 +48%
Galan vs. Balshaw: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $1 +$1 +101%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) Jun 13 $2 +$2 +76%
Set Handicap: Cina (-1.5) vs Daniel (+1.5) Jun 13 $1 $0 +49%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 13 $1 $0 +41%
Alexander Bublik vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +73%
Cina vs. Daniel: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) BUY Bellucci 58¢ $1 0m
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) BUY Bellucci 58¢ $1 1m
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Borges (+1.5) BUY Borges 54¢ $2 37m
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 55¢ $1 46m
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Nikoloz Basilashvili 59¢ $1 54m
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 67¢ $1 1h
Set Handicap: Tien (-1.5) vs Schoenhaus (+1.5) BUY Tien 58¢ $1 1h
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $1 1h
Alex Baena: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 3h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2 4h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 5h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 5h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 5h
Will Grêmio Novorizontino vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 6h
Will Grêmio Novorizontino vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 15h
Will Cuiabá EC vs. Vila Nova FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 15h
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 15h
Will Athletic Club vs. Goiás EC end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 15h
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 15h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron SELL Rinky Hijikata 100¢ $2 16h
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt BUY Mattia Bellucci 33¢ $1 16h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Under 41¢ $1 16h
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Fritz (+1.5) SELL Fritz 100¢ $1 17h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 17h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 17h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $1 17h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 78¢ $1 17h
Set Handicap: Perricard (-1.5) vs Kovacevic (+1.5) BUY Perricard 51¢ $5 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.80 · official $11.80 (match) · 933 history records