Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:40:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x4382…b718 other 21 markets active 2d ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$885 (-60%) realized −$885 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%4W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$56
14 days−$56
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% −$795
other 15% −$56
sports 3% −$29
crypto 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-35.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +11.6% +0.9% 33% 33% -33.8%
≤30d 9 +11.6% +0.9% 33% 33% -33.8%
≤90d 18 -30.0% -36.7% 17% 17% -63.7%
all 20 -28.9% -35.7% 20% 20% -64.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.7% 20% -64.1%
10% -41.9% 20% -67.5%
15% -47.5% 20% -70.7%
20% -52.6% 10% -73.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -60% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -67% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$58 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$885
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses4 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage95d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Yes $7 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $175 −$79 -45%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$23 +442%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$3 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 09 $25 −$4 -15%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 28 $50 −$18 -36%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Mar 28 $75 −$19 -25%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Mar 28 $968 −$655 -68%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? Mar 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 14 $35 −$28 -80%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 12 $1 $0 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 52¢ $96 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $175 2d
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? BUY Yes $7 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $4 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 6d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 6d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 6d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? SELL No 21¢ $21 69d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? BUY No 25¢ $25 69d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $32 81d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? SELL Yes $56 81d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? SELL Yes $80 81d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $50 83d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? BUY Yes $75 83d
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In BUY VP.Prodigy 15¢ $1 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 87d
Solana Up or Down - March 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 88d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 89d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? SELL Yes $233 89d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes $968 96d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs SELL Tundra Esports 62¢ $1 97d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs BUY Tundra Esports 44¢ $1 97d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs BUY Aurora 15¢ $30 97d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs SELL Aurora 35¢ $7 97d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs BUY Aurora 25¢ $5 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.32 · official $6.32 (match) · 34 history records