Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:39:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x4381…6bd6 sports 1173 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$277 (-5%) realized −$277 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate34%404W / 769L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$52
14 days−$96
30 days−$345
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$261
other 42% −$127
crypto 2% −$24
world 1% +$8
politics 0% −$5
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +3.0% -6.8% 47% 47% +23.0%
≤30d 157 -16.9% -24.8% 30% 25% -25.6%
≤90d 516 -5.1% -14.2% 35% 31% -13.1%
all 1173 -11.5% -19.9% 34% 32% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 32% -16.9%
10% -27.6% 29% -24.9%
15% -34.6% 28% -32.1%
20% -41.0% 25% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$277
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses404 / 769
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1173 / 1173
History coverage138d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1173 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $10 +$22 +216%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $19 +$26 +138%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $5 +$5 +89%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 19 $26 −$4 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $23 +$18 +77%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $19 +$5 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $10 +$9 +88%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $3 +$4 +126%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $6 −$5 -78%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 Jun 13 $2 −$1 -28%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$7 -43%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $12 −$6 -52%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$2 +62%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -80%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$5 +91%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $31 −$14 -43%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $38 −$38 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$5 +103%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $15 +$2 +10%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$3 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $82 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $4 $0 +10%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $14 −$1 -5%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? Jun 12 $14 +$1 +6%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$2 -47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $32 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 31¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 33¢ $7 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 99¢ $44 28h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 40¢ $10 29h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 28¢ $3 29h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 53¢ $6 30h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $10 30h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 52¢ $5 31h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 26¢ $2 32h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 50¢ $6 32h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $22 32h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $26 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $41 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $23 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $23 4d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $19 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $19 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $7 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $3 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 8¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 46¢ $4 6d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 32¢ $3 6d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 36¢ $3 6d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 9¢ $2 6d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 SELL Yes 6¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3014 history records