Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:43:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x437f…984b crypto 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$217 (+11%) realized +$217 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate58%19W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day49.1pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$51
other 3% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -6.1% -15.1% 58% 55% -6.5%
≤30d 33 -6.1% -15.1% 58% 55% -6.5%
≤90d 33 -6.1% -15.1% 58% 55% -6.5%
all 33 -6.1% -15.1% 58% 55% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 55% -6.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 45% -15.4%
15% -30.6% 45% -23.6%
20% -37.4% 24% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$46 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$217
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses19 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage2d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day49.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 23 $46 −$44 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$20 +38%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $65 +$10 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $104 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$21 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $42 +$15 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $49 +$46 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 22 $104 +$104 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 22 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $52 +$51 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $104 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 22 $52 +$23 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 22 $103 +$49 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 22 $56 +$9 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 22 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 22 $28 −$15 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 22 $52 +$20 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $68 −$66 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 21 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $41 +$32 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$20 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $204 −$100 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 21 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$43 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $53 +$89 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$10 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $52 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $75 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $65 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $7 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $35 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $0 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $7 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $7 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $18 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $18 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $18 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $4 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 138 history records