Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:40:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x437f…5b95 weather 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,637 (+14%) realized +$2,637 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate54%51W / 44L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day55.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$111
7 days+$849
14 days+$1,672
30 days+$2,079
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$2,079
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +20.6% +9.1% 67% 41% +6.2%
≤30d 95 +1.8% -7.9% 54% 38% +0.2%
≤90d 95 +1.8% -7.9% 54% 38% +0.2%
all 95 +1.8% -7.9% 54% 38% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.9% 38% +0.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.7% 31% -9.4%
15% -24.8% 21% -18.1%
20% -32.2% 17% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$49 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,637
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses51 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)95 / 95
History coverage25d
Avg bet$204
Trades / day55.6
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 95 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $312 +$77 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $152 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $73 −$15 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $537 −$19 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $249 +$18 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $158 −$28 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $41 +$92 +225%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $45 −$16 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $11 −$5 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $23 +$33 +141%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $137 +$12 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $125 +$66 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $51 +$43 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $312 +$188 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $927 +$69 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $162 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $26 −$15 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $392 +$206 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $201 −$26 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $178 −$55 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 11 $8 +$4 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $79 +$15 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $318 +$19 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$4 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $350 +$175 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $287 −$76 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $147 −$22 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $293 −$12 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $228 +$42 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $86 +$21 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $235 +$298 +127%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $144 −$62 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $6 −$2 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $380 +$141 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $105 −$55 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $94 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $126 −$41 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 6? Jun 06 $375 +$85 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 6? Jun 06 $78 −$37 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $304 +$247 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $339 +$12 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $12 −$3 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 4? Jun 04 $122 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 4? Jun 04 $209 +$71 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $247 +$91 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 3? Jun 03 $174 +$116 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $45 −$10 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 3? Jun 03 $294 +$12 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 88¢ $53 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 94¢ $57 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 94¢ $33 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 94¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 91¢ $91 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 94¢ $78 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 86¢ $47 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 80¢ $92 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 88¢ $78 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 81¢ $72 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 69¢ $27 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 25¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 68¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 58¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 53¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 45¢ $14 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 41¢ $17 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 40¢ $32 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1413 history records