Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:42:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x437f…343c crypto 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-5%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate69%24W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day106.0pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$4
other 16% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +0.3% -9.2% 69% 40% -13.9%
≤30d 35 +0.3% -9.2% 69% 40% -13.9%
≤90d 35 +0.3% -9.2% 69% 40% -13.9%
all 35 +0.3% -9.2% 69% 40% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover106.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 40% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 29% -22.1%
15% -25.9% 17% -29.7%
20% -33.1% 9% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses24 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day106.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +171%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $0 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $2 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $2 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $1 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $6 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $1 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $2 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $0 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 56m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.95 · official $15.95 (match) · 126 history records