Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:20:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x437f…7d75 crypto 56 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (161 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$52 (-6%) realized −$86 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate55%30W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day161.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$87
other 5% +$3
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (161 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-32.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -25.5% -32.6% 55% 22% -19.9%
≤30d 55 -25.5% -32.6% 55% 22% -19.9%
≤90d 55 -25.5% -32.6% 55% 22% -19.9%
all 55 -25.5% -32.6% 55% 22% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover161.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.6% 22% -19.9%
10% ← realistic here -39.1% 5% -27.6%
15% -45.0% 0% -34.6%
20% -50.4% 0% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses30 / 25
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage2d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day161.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Up 92¢ 96¢ $57 $59 +$2 (+4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $75 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$12 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$8 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$15 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $45 +$2 +5%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $39 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $45 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $32 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$3 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -23%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$2 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$4 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$10 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$20 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$11 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 6m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.46 · official $58.23 · 274 history records