Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:42:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x437e…801f crypto 1114 markets active 4h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d only
✗ bot/MM pace (240 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$300 (-4%) realized −$300 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate57%716W / 537L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day240.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,155
7 days−$1,900
14 days−$1,186
30 days−$1,186
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$976
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (240 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 652 -50.8% -55.5% 30% 29% -43.7%
≤30d 1253 -14.4% -22.6% 57% 49% -23.6%
≤90d 1253 -14.4% -22.6% 57% 49% -23.6%
all 1253 -14.4% -22.6% 57% 49% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover240.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.6% 49% -23.6%
10% ← realistic here -30.0% 40% -30.9%
15% -36.7% 33% -37.6%
20% -42.9% 24% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -54% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$300
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses716 / 537
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1253 / 1114
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day240.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1253 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records