Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:07:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
43 0x437c…5b99 crypto 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 260d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$158 (-1%) realized −$158 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate76%26W / 8L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$729per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% −$7
other 18% −$51
economics 18% −$5
crypto 13% −$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 34 -4.5% -13.6% 76% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 0% -10.1%
10% -21.8% 0% -18.7%
15% -29.4% 0% -26.6%
20% -36.3% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$20 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

260d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized−$158
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses26 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage260d
Avg bet$729
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $150 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? Jun 01 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 9? May 09 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in April? May 08 $66 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? May 08 $72 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on March 19? Mar 28 $28 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Mar 19 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Mar 09 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Mar 09 $112 +$1 +1%
Will Solana dip to $20 in February? Mar 09 $168 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 12? Feb 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in January? Feb 11 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 20 $3,388 −$3 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 20 $3,400 −$3 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 19? Jan 20 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on January 18? Jan 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on January 9? Jan 18 $36 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 04 $4,560 −$5 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 04 $4,619 −$51 -1%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 03 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 9? Dec 27 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on December 6? Dec 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 29? Dec 06 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 2? Nov 28 $39 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 02 $5 $0 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on October 29? Nov 02 $40 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on October 24? Oct 29 $51 +$1 +1%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 24 $2 −$1 -72%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on October 21? Oct 24 $38 +$1 +3%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 10 $3,617 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Oct 09 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 09 $1,996 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $53 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $38 26d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $60 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $38 47d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in April? BUY No 100¢ $66 57d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $72 89d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $28 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $18 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $112 108d
Will Solana dip to $20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $168 119d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 12? BUY No 100¢ $33 133d
Will Solana reach $210 in January? BUY No 100¢ $37 148d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $40 148d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $3,257 156d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $3,300 156d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $3,385 156d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $3,388 156d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $3,397 156d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $3,400 156d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 157d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on January 18? BUY No 100¢ $33 158d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on January 9? BUY No 100¢ $36 167d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $4,555 172d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $4,560 172d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $4,568 172d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $4,619 172d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $35 178d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $55 180d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $35 198d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.63 · official $92.63 (match) · 243 history records