Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:11:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
43 0x437b…6f17 other 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate9%10W / 96L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$177now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$9
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$23
politics 18% −$4
sports 7% +$19
economics 3% −$1
world 3% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -20.1% -27.7% 0% 0% -14.3%
≤30d 18 -5.7% -14.6% 11% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 106 -0.5% -10.0% 9% 6% -9.6%
all 106 -0.5% -10.0% 9% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 6% -9.6%
10% -18.6% 6% -18.2%
15% -26.5% 6% -26.1%
20% -33.7% 6% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×8.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$177
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses10 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)106 / 108
History coverage89d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $88 $88 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $88 $88 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $38 $0 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $26 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $32 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $255 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $40 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $618 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $34 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $64 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? Jun 02 $90 $0 +0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 30 $40 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $40 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 23 $40 $0 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 22 $48 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $209 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $426 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 16 $211 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $215 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 14 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $215 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $210 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $211 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $445 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $220 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $677 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $210 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 04 $211 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $223 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $226 $0 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 02 $226 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $231 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $222 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $399 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $643 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $448 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $422 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $215 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $621 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $230 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $228 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $215 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $215 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $214 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $437 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $408 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $234 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $88 1h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 5h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 7h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 29h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 32h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $8 39h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $32 3d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $32 3d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $88 6d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $38 7d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $38 8d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 8d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 8d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $41 10d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $41 10d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 13d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 13d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $47 15d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $48 15d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 17d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 17d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $40 19d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $40 20d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $39 21d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $64 22d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $41 26d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $41 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.54 · official $176.54 (match) · 296 history records