Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:46:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x437b…c664 crypto 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$21 (+2%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate89%25W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day32.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +1.4% -8.3% 89% 14% -13.1%
≤30d 28 +1.4% -8.3% 89% 14% -13.1%
≤90d 28 +1.4% -8.3% 89% 14% -13.1%
all 28 +1.4% -8.3% 89% 14% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 14% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.0% 11% -21.4%
15% -25.1% 4% -29.0%
20% -32.4% 4% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$35 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses25 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage1d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day32.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $54 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $45 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $45 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $45 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $35 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $33 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $52 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $35 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $35 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $35 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $33 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $34 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $18 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $15 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 54 history records