Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:03:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x437b…fab1 sports 453 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$17,247 (-11%) realized −$17,456 · open +$209
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate85%378W / 69L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$353per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$364est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$9,013now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$359
7 days+$1,481
14 days+$1,510
30 days−$13,020
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$7,325
other 24% −$10,020
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +7.9% -2.4% 76% 65% +6.1%
≤30d 37 +0.2% -9.4% 70% 38% -43.0%
≤90d 353 -2.3% -11.6% 85% 33% -35.6%
all 447 +2.0% -7.7% 85% 32% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 32% -20.6%
10% -16.5% 11% -28.2%
15% -24.6% 6% -35.1%
20% -32.0% 5% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$614 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$9,013
Realized−$17,456
Unrealized+$209
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses378 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$364
Open positions6
Markets (closed)447 / 453
History coverage149d
Avg bet$353
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 447 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 57¢ 57¢ $3,339 $3,366 +$26 (+1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? No 91¢ 96¢ $2,575 $2,694 +$119 (+5%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 79¢ 81¢ $1,232 $1,271 +$39 (+3%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? No 92¢ 94¢ $866 $880 +$14 (+2%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 55¢ 56¢ $705 $718 +$13 (+2%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 90¢ 87¢ $87 $85 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Brussels: Fadi Bidan vs Dylan Dietrich Jun 26 $210 +$30 +14%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Brazil Jun 25 $842 +$243 +29%
Japan vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $104 −$103 -99%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $690 +$189 +27%
Kwon vs. Gea: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 24 $622 +$496 +80%
Soon-Woo Kwon vs. Arthur Gea: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $126 +$148 +118%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Arthur Gea Jun 24 $494 −$487 -98%
Kwon vs. Gea: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Set Handicap: Gea (-1.5) vs Kwon (+1.5) Jun 24 $113 −$111 -98%
ITF Kayseri: Roman Sancilio vs Cagan Efe Tufekci Jun 24 $106 +$74 +70%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Federico Coria vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 24 $897 +$217 +24%
ITF Monastir: Ibrahim Snoussi vs Ali Habib Jun 24 $416 +$103 +25%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $327 +$83 +26%
ITF Bakio: Oscar Weightman vs Darrshan Suresh Jun 23 $263 +$16 +6%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $52 +$13 +26%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 21 $540 +$460 +85%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,777 +$111 +4%
Will William Saliba be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $541 +$29 +5%
Will Trinidad and Tobago win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $61 +$4 +7%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 08 $1,869 +$1,431 +77%
Spread: Gibraltar (-1.5) Jun 06 $570 +$430 +75%
Spread: Gibraltar (-2.5) Jun 06 $363 +$676 +186%
Gibraltar vs. Cayman Islands: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $2,107 −$2,104 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 06 $733 +$8 +1%
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) Jun 06 $538 −$536 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 05 $256 +$3 +1%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-06? Jun 05 $1,835 −$1,834 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 05 $1,939 +$35 +2%
Spread: Poland (-2.5) Jun 04 $1,412 +$129 +9%
Spread: Wales (-2.5) Jun 02 $651 −$1 -0%
Grêmio FBPA vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 2.5 May 30 $333 −$25 -8%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $17,369 −$10,266 -59%
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) May 29 $2,498 −$2,487 -100%
Spread: Club Alianza Atlético (-2.5) May 29 $71 +$2 +3%
Spread: Deportivo La Guaira FC (-2.5) May 28 $57 +$2 +4%
Spread: Deportivo La Guaira FC (-1.5) May 28 $60 +$2 +3%
Spread: CA Barracas Central (-2.5) May 28 $62 +$2 +3%
Spread: O'Higgins FC (-2.5) May 27 $58 +$2 +3%
Will Fermín López be included in Spain's official 2026 World Cup squad May 26 $1,131 +$4 +0%
Will Dean Huijsen be included in Spain's official 2026 World Cup squad May 26 $505 −$504 -100%
Will Joan García be included in Spain's official 2026 World Cup squad May 25 $190 +$3 +2%
Will Víctor Muñoz be included in Spain's official 2026 World Cup squad May 25 $33 +$2 +6%
Will Marcos Llorente be included in Spain's official 2026 World Cup sq May 25 $64 +$1 +1%
Will Marc Cucurella be included in Spain's official 2026 World Cup squ May 25 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Borja Iglesias be included in Spain's official 2026 World Cup squ May 25 $333 +$7 +2%
Will Lamine Yamal be included in Spain's official 2026 World Cup squad May 25 $414 +$1 +0%
Will Mikel Oyarzábal be included in Spain's official 2026 World Cup sq May 25 $479 +$1 +0%
Spread: SC União Torreense (-2.5) May 25 $86 +$2 +2%
Spread: Al Hazem SC (-1.5) May 21 $82 −$81 -100%
Spread: AD Confiança (-1.5) May 19 $74 +$4 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. Portugal: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $714 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 79¢ $1,240 1h
ITF Brussels: Fadi Bidan vs Dylan Dietrich BUY Dylan Dietrich 88¢ $23 10h
ITF Brussels: Fadi Bidan vs Dylan Dietrich BUY Dylan Dietrich 88¢ $16 10h
ITF Brussels: Fadi Bidan vs Dylan Dietrich BUY Dylan Dietrich 88¢ $28 10h
ITF Brussels: Fadi Bidan vs Dylan Dietrich BUY Dylan Dietrich 88¢ $66 10h
ITF Brussels: Fadi Bidan vs Dylan Dietrich BUY Dylan Dietrich 87¢ $9 10h
ITF Brussels: Fadi Bidan vs Dylan Dietrich BUY Dylan Dietrich 86¢ $69 10h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 90¢ $88 27h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Brazil BUY Bahamas 78¢ $68 27h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Brazil BUY Bahamas 77¢ $14 27h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Brazil BUY Bahamas 77¢ $39 27h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Brazil BUY Bahamas 77¢ $39 27h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Brazil BUY Bahamas 77¢ $682 27h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $21 27h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $15 27h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $109 27h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $3,238 27h
Japan vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 61¢ $104 29h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Arthur Gea BUY Arthur Gea 49¢ $491 2d
Kwon vs. Gea: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 47¢ $2 2d
Set Handicap: Gea (-1.5) vs Kwon (+1.5) BUY Gea 35¢ $15 2d
Soon-Woo Kwon vs. Arthur Gea: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 49¢ $5 2d
Soon-Woo Kwon vs. Arthur Gea: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 48¢ $2 2d
Set Handicap: Gea (-1.5) vs Kwon (+1.5) BUY Gea 32¢ $3 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Arthur Gea BUY Arthur Gea 49¢ $4 2d
Set Handicap: Gea (-1.5) vs Kwon (+1.5) BUY Gea 33¢ $7 2d
Soon-Woo Kwon vs. Arthur Gea: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 45¢ $9 2d
Set Handicap: Gea (-1.5) vs Kwon (+1.5) BUY Gea 33¢ $88 2d
Soon-Woo Kwon vs. Arthur Gea: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 45¢ $109 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,013.20 · official $9,013.35 (match) · 2421 history records