Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:45:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x437b…0f0b world 413 markets active 0h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$335 (-1%) realized −$291 · open −$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate68%269W / 128L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day15.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$802now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days−$172
14 days−$136
30 days−$144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% −$99
other 18% −$162
politics 13% −$52
culture 3% −$18
tech 2% −$10
finance 2% −$5
crypto 1% +$11
sports 1% −$20
economics 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +54.2% +39.5% 47% 20% -11.9%
≤30d 56 +28.8% +16.5% 61% 18% -10.9%
≤90d 266 +4.6% -5.4% 63% 15% -10.9%
all 397 +3.5% -6.4% 68% 14% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 14% -10.7%
10% -15.4% 3% -19.2%
15% -23.5% 1% -27.0%
20% -31.0% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$11 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$802
Realized−$291
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses269 / 128
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions16
Markets (closed)397 / 413
History coverage131d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 397 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 86¢ 89¢ $115 $119 +$4 (+4%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 87¢ 84¢ $106 $103 −$4 (-3%)
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? No 80¢ 86¢ $84 $90 +$6 (+8%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? No 88¢ 99¢ $63 $71 +$8 (+13%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Yes 79¢ 95¢ $54 $66 +$11 (+21%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 88¢ 88¢ $55 $55 +$0 (+0%)
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $54 $54 +$0 (+0%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 77¢ 74¢ $56 $54 −$2 (-4%)
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Yes 83¢ 85¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? No 86¢ 66¢ $54 $41 −$13 (-24%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 85¢ 86¢ $32 $32 +$1 (+2%)
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? No 87¢ 88¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 84¢ 78¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 79¢ 82¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? No 87¢ 8¢ $63 $6 −$57 (-90%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 89¢ 93¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 17 $126 +$19 +15%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 17 $268 −$29 -11%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 17 $172 −$5 -3%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 Jun 16 $204 −$4 -2%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 16 $49 −$7 -14%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 16 $264 −$17 -6%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 16 $10 −$2 -15%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? Jun 15 $55 +$4 +7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $168 −$14 -9%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $987 +$9 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $590 −$25 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $547 −$95 -17%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $226 +$42 +18%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 14 $120 +$6 +5%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 14 $539 −$12 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 14 $201 +$6 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $146 −$5 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $173 −$24 -14%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 14 $241 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 13 $119 −$17 -14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $329 +$9 +3%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $63 +$8 +12%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 12 $166 +$5 +3%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 11 $124 −$17 -14%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 11 $108 −$16 -14%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $63 +$6 +10%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $143 +$25 +18%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 11 $249 −$35 -14%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 10 $111 +$12 +11%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $16 $0 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 08 $179 +$23 +13%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? Jun 08 $106 +$5 +5%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 08 $57 +$3 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $61 +$13 +22%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by May 31? Jun 05 $145 +$6 +4%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $385 −$15 -4%
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? Jun 02 $210 +$9 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 31 $302 +$43 +14%
Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31? May 28 $117 +$5 +5%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 28 $65 +$3 +4%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? May 26 $61 +$9 +14%
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by May 31? May 26 $118 +$5 +4%
Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by May 31? May 26 $59 +$2 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $65 $0 +0%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31, 2026? May 23 $133 +$4 +3%
Nothing Ever Happens: May May 23 $119 −$20 -17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $169 −$24 -14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $212 +$9 +4%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of May 22 $120 −$4 -3%
Will Russia enter Myrne by May 31, 2026? May 22 $7 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? SELL Yes 86¢ $9 15m
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $47 42m
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $7 51m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL No 86¢ $56 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 80¢ $33 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 79¢ $22 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 86¢ $56 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY Yes 79¢ $54 5h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $110 5h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $1 6h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $27 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL Yes 76¢ $47 8h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 84¢ $54 9h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $23 9h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 78¢ $31 10h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY No 83¢ $54 10h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 78¢ $23 10h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY Yes 88¢ $54 11h
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 84¢ $11 12h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 74¢ $9 12h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 74¢ $4 12h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 74¢ $29 12h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 69¢ $37 14h
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 84¢ $5 14h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 86¢ $49 14h
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 84¢ $39 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 80¢ $36 15h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 80¢ $3 16h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 80¢ $3 16h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $12 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $801.81 · official $802.39 (match) · 2073 history records