Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:36:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
43 0x4379…b8a7 crypto 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$126 (+0%) realized +$125 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%100W / 2L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$345per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$38
14 days+$65
30 days+$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$125
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
other 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 28 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 63 +0.3% -9.3% 98% 0% -9.1%
all 102 -0.7% -10.1% 98% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.2%
10% -18.7% 0% -17.9%
15% -26.6% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,016) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$9 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×7.87 per $1 lost it wins $7.87
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$1,110
Realized+$125
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses100 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)102 / 104
History coverage156d
Avg bet$345
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,106 $1,106 +$1 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $1,101 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $1,076 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $1,078 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $1,083 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $1,073 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,066 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,060 +$10 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,055 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,045 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1,051 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,033 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $1,043 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $1,032 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $1,027 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $1,026 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $1,025 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $1,019 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $1,016 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $1,009 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $1,012 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $294 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $715 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $1,007 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $995 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 28? May 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 27? May 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? May 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 25? May 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 23? May 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 15? May 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 13? May 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 12? May 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? May 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 10? May 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 9? May 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7? May 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 8? May 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 6? May 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 5? May 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 4? May 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 2? May 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 1? May 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m May 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 30? May 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 23? Apr 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 22? Apr 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 20? Apr 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 14? Apr 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 12? Apr 14 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,106 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $465 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $35 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $596 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $1,076 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,078 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,083 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,073 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,066 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $293 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $694 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $74 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $835 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1,045 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,051 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $1,033 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $901 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $142 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,032 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,027 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 99¢ $24 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,001 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $796 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $229 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,019 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $1,016 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,110.30 · official $1,110.30 (match) · 230 history records