Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:59:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
43 0x4375…9079 other 97 markets active 1h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$111 (+1%) realized +$111 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate86%83W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$522now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$89
14 days+$160
30 days+$198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +3.2% -6.6% 100% 0% -6.7%
≤30d 22 +2.5% -7.3% 95% 9% -7.4%
≤90d 74 +1.4% -8.3% 92% 14% -8.1%
all 96 -0.3% -9.8% 86% 22% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 22% -9.1%
10% -18.4% 8% -17.8%
15% -26.3% 4% -25.8%
20% -33.5% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$67 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$522
Realized+$111
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses83 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)96 / 97
History coverage131d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $522 $522 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $503 +$19 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $493 +$7 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $490 +$6 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $477 +$14 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $474 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $433 +$41 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $419 +$14 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $415 +$5 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $409 +$5 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $362 +$47 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $353 +$9 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $345 +$4 +1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $342 +$7 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $327 +$16 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $322 +$5 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $319 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 28 $315 +$5 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $266 +$46 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $359 −$91 -26%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $341 +$16 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $339 +$5 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $317 +$16 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $298 +$25 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $330 −$34 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $285 +$48 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $270 +$15 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 16 $256 +$14 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $244 +$12 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 13 $229 +$15 +7%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $222 +$6 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 11 $220 +$3 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $211 +$8 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $260 −$48 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 07 $254 +$6 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $251 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 05 $243 +$9 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 02 $234 +$9 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $21 +$2 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? May 01 $191 +$20 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 29 $197 +$14 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 29 $182 +$15 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $167 +$16 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $159 +$7 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $154 +$5 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Apr 21 $146 +$8 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 18 $142 +$4 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 18 $137 +$5 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $135 +$3 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $127 +$8 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 08 $121 +$5 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $522 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $8 17h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $14 17h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $54 17h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 17h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $103 17h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $3 17h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $91 17h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $96 17h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $97 17h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 18h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 18h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $8 18h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 18h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $99 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $296 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $98 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $490 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $477 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $474 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $433 6d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $7 9d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $145 9d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $242 9d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $25 9d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $12 10d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $237 10d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $87 10d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $79 10d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $409 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $521.58 · official $521.31 (match) · 247 history records