Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:12:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x4375…ded0 other 8 markets active 2d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-48%) realized −$4 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$2
world 30% −$1
sports 20% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)4 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-42%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Curaçao to score first vs. Germany? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 36h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Curaçao to score first vs. Germany? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.03 · official $5.03 (match) · 9 history records